Ibovespa recovers to 161,000 points: construction companies soar while the dollar loses ground

The Brazilian stock exchange woke up differently this Monday (5). After a timid start to the year, the Ibovespa turned the game around and closed up 0.83%, touching 161,869.76 points. What explains this recovery? A mix of domestic optimism and international geopolitical chess that shifted capital flows.

The monetary market finds its rhythm

Those closely following Central Bank figures saw something interesting in this week’s Focus report: economists keep inflation for 2026 virtually steady at 4.06%, rising only marginally compared to previous projections. This reinforces the idea that prices are under control. On the interest front, the bet that the Selic will end the year at 12.25% remains standing – a significant cycle of cuts compared to the current 15%. All of this, of course, depends on the December IPCA, which is released this Friday (9).

Construction companies celebrating: the housing boom

Shares of homebuilders stole the scene in this session. MRV (MRVE3) surged over 7%, while Cyrela (CYRE3) and Direcional (DIRR3) advanced more than 5%. The reason? These names are riding a very favorable wave. The Minha Casa Minha Vida program continues injecting money into the market, financing conditions remain friendly, and construction companies focused on affordable housing can accelerate launches and increase margins. As analysts highlight, this scenario creates a clear window of opportunity for the sector to expand profits and consolidate positions.

Vale in demand, Petrobras in reverse

Miner Vale (VALE3) closed higher, tracking iron ore prices in international markets – in Dalian, futures contracts rose nearly 1%, signaling persistent demand from Chinese steelmakers. Petrobras (PETR4), however, moved in the opposite direction. While oil surged in London and New York trading sessions, the company’s shares fell. Why? Speculation about the impact of US military intervention in Venezuela and its effects on crude oil production infrastructure. The market bet on new supply flows and a possible rebuilding of Venezuelan production capacity – a move that temporarily cooled enthusiasm for the local oil sector.

Embraer capitalizes on geopolitical tension

While construction and mining companies supported the index, Embraer (EMBJ3) took advantage of external turbulence and rose 4.85%, closing at R$ 92.89. The logic is well known: when the world becomes restless, assets related to defense and surveillance gain shine. The ousting of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and US military action caused a reorganization of global flows. Investors sought refuge in aerospace companies, anticipating increased military budgets and demand for fleet modernization. It’s a typical move during times of institutional instability – defensive assets become safe havens, benefiting from expectations of new government contracts.

Retail under pressure; C&A leads the drops

The retail segment had a tough day. C&A (CEAB3) led the declines with a 16% drop, a move operators described as profit-taking after recent gains. While construction, mining, and defense stocks gained, consumer stocks faced resistance.

Dollar falls to R$ 5.40 in the first normal trading session of the year

The dollar closed down 0.34%, reaching R$ 5.40. According to analysts, this was the first real trading day of 2026 – the previous session lacked enough volume to form robust prices. Internationally, the US dollar also lost momentum: the DXY index, which measures its strength against a basket of reserve currencies, fell 0.16%, to 98.26 points. The normalization of institutional flows after the New Year’s holiday helped ease pressure on the real.

Records on Wall Street fuel risk appetite

In the US, the scene was festive. The Dow Jones hit all-time highs with a 1.23% gain, while New York indices posted sharp increases. Optimism was especially fueled by the energy sector, which reacted positively to developments in Venezuela. Globally, markets entered risk-seeking mode, benefiting companies exposed to more expansive economic cycles and sectors sensitive to geopolitical changes.

The week began, therefore, with a clear recovery of the Ibovespa, with well-defined sectors capturing capital flows: construction, mining, and defense as protagonists; retail and oil as secondary players. A complex landscape reflecting both domestic opportunities and external uncertainties that continue to shape investment decisions.