Copper again above the $13,000 mark – labor disputes and customs risks fuel the market

Copper prices have experienced a remarkable upward movement, breaking through the psychological threshold of $13,000 per ton. With an increase of more than four percent, the commodity market signals growing tensions in global supply. Several factors are simultaneously acting as price drivers.

Labor Conflict at Mantoverde Mine as a Supply Factor

The current labor dispute at Chile’s Mantoverde Mine is sparking new discussions about supply shortages. Although this facility accounts for less than 0.5 percent of global supply, the union indicates that the strike could potentially last longer than two months, supported by extensive financial reserves. Mining operators hope to continue about 30 percent of normal production with non-striking employees.

Beyond the sheer amount of production loss, this conflict is interpreted as a warning signal. Commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank observes that high prices significantly intensify tensions between mining companies and their employees — with the risk that such labor disputes could recur at other extraction sites.

US Tariff Policy as an Uncertainty Factor in the Copper Market

A second major price driver stems from growing concerns over possible American tariffs on refined copper. After such tariffs were initially exempted last year, the US administration signals a reassessment by the end of June.

These tariff fears are already affecting the futures market: during the summer months, tariff concerns led to significant premiums on the New York COMEX compared to the London Metal Exchange (LME). In December, these premiums increased noticeably again. Although premiums have recently decreased, copper inventories at COMEX are steadily growing — a phenomenon that fuels fears that the metal could become a scarce resource outside the American market.

This combination of a short-term supply shock and long-term tariff risks positions the copper market in a phase of increased volatility and upward price movement.