2026-01-15 13:26:53

BTC rebounded to $96,600 on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a steady overall trend. From the on-chain fund flow perspective, the situation is quite interesting.

Total CVD accumulated a net buy of +10.895K, indicating that the support at the bottom of the funds is relatively solid. However, in terms of details, the contract market is performing particularly aggressively—CVD data shows +52.124M, with leveraged longs clearly increasing their positions, and this force has dominated the recent rally.

The spot side is different. CVD shows -40.074K, with obvious selling pressure and signs of fund outflow. But from a broader time frame, the one-week cumulative spot is still positive, so short-term outflows are just noise. The real strength lies in the derivatives—24-hour inflows have already reached the billion-level.

The situation where derivatives are surging and spot prices are passively following is very clear. This also means that although the bulls are in the lead, caution is needed when chasing highs in the short term. Additionally, it’s worth noting that the premium index on a major mainstream trading platform has returned to the negative zone (-0.0197%), indicating that investor enthusiasm in the US is not high, and institutional and US stock market funds’ buying interest appears somewhat weak. This detail is worth paying attention to.

BTC-0,2%

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SatsStacking

· 4h ago

The contract is rapidly increasing its position, while the spot market is bleeding. How do you play this game? The frenzy of leverage longs will eventually come to an end. There's not much enthusiasm on the US side anymore, and we're still chasing highs? That's a bit dangerous, brother. The bottom support looks okay, but I always feel like a correction is coming someday. A weekly positive in the spot market can't save the short-term awkward situation. This is just the contract dancing with the spot market; sooner or later, they'll fall. No one is paying attention even when the premium turns negative? Institutions are indeed a bit tired.

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SchrodingerProfit

· 4h ago

The contract is pumping, while the spot is running. I've seen this trick too many times. Be careful of catching the bag, brothers.

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FlashLoanLord

· 4h ago

The contracts are rapidly rallying, but the spot market is quietly selling off. Can we trust this move? --- The enthusiasm over in the US isn't high; premiums have turned negative, which is a bit concerning. --- Are leveraged longs adding positions? Let's wait and see if they get trapped. --- 1.911 billion in inflows sounds impressive, but the spot market is under selling pressure, feels uneasy. --- Short-term chasing highs definitely requires caution; with such aggressive contracts, a correction is always possible. --- The support at the bottom is still okay, but the weakness of US funds is a bit frustrating. --- Is the outflow of spot just noise? Well, I feel it's not that simple. --- Contracts are surging while the spot market is rising in tandem—typical leverage manipulation. --- Weak buying momentum from US stock funds; is this a signal? --- The four-hour rebound to 96,600 but with negative premiums; the contrast is quite stark.

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StablecoinEnjoyer

· 4h ago

The contracts are wildly leveraging up and pushing the price up, while the spot market is actually fleeing. Isn't this a classic leverage game? The US premium is already negative, and institutions are indeed not enthusiastic. It feels a bit uncertain about the future. Chasing the high in the short term? I wouldn't dare. Let's wait and see if the spot market can catch up before making a move. The solid support at the bottom is reassuring, but this kind of one-sided contract rally always feels a bit fake. If the 96,600 level can't hold, there might be a pullback later. Spot outflows are still continuing. Short-term noise? I don't think so. US investors have lost interest, and Asian retail investors are holding the market up. It's very fragile. Leverage longs are aggressively adding positions. What does that mean? It just indicates unstable chips. The 911 million yuan inflow into contracts looks substantial, but when divided, it's not that much. Be cautious. Weak institutions plus retail chasing highs—this combination usually doesn't end well.

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