January 15th Gold Evening Analysis

Currently, gold prices are hovering around 4616, having fallen about 26 dollars from the intraday high of 4642, showing a pattern of high-level consolidation. From the hourly chart, the price has been repeatedly tugging within a broad range of 4570 to 4643, without a clear breakout above the previous high, but also holding above key support levels. The bulls and bears are temporarily at a stalemate.

What does the technical analysis say? The J line of the KDJ indicator has already broken above 100 into the overbought zone, which is a clear short-term correction signal. The price could experience a technical pullback at any time, but the K and D lines have not yet turned downward, indicating that the bullish fundamentals remain solid. Looking at MACD, the DIFF line is gradually approaching the DEA line, and the red histogram bars are still expanding, suggesting a golden cross is about to form. This indicates that the medium-term upward momentum is still accumulating, and the decline after overbought conditions is more like a shakeout by the main players rather than a trend reversal signal. RSI and ATR are both in relatively strong zones but still have room to buffer, implying that the bulls still have further upward potential. Current volatility is at a medium level, and economic data releases could trigger sharp fluctuations.

US Initial Jobless Claims Data is Key

If the data is below expectations (less than 210,000): It reinforces the view that employment resilience is strong and that there is no urgent need to cut rates. The dollar and US bond yields may rebound, putting short-term pressure on gold, with a focus on the support line at 4600.

If the data exceeds expectations (more than 220,000): The market will interpret this as a faster cooling of employment, pre-emptively betting on rate cuts. Gold buying interest will be activated, and a breakout above the previous high of 4642 is possible.

If the data meets expectations (21,000 to 22,000): The market lacks a clear direction, and prices are likely to continue oscillating within the range.

Trading Strategy

Before the data: Use a range-bound mindset, consider shorting near 4625 and buying near 4600, but remember to strictly control position risk.

After the data: Based on the specific direction—if it breaks above 4642, go long with a target of 4660. If it falls below 4600, try shorting with a target of 4580.