U.S. Data Overall Positive, Precious Metals Fluctuate Between Bulls and Bears

On the evening of January 10, multiple economic data releases from various countries were published, instantly becoming a barometer for precious metal trading. Canada's November wholesale sales month-over-month fell to -1.8%, far below the expected 0.1%. This soft data should have given gold and silver a breather, but the performance on the U.S. side directly suppressed this positive outlook.

Looking at the U.S. data makes it clear—initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 were 198,000, beating the forecast of 215,000, indicating the labor market remains tight. More importantly, manufacturing is rebounding—New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices surged to 7.7 and 12.6 respectively, after being in negative territory the previous week. This reversal is quite remarkable. Additionally, the November import price index rose 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected -0.1%, indicating inflationary pressures persist.

This strong performance of the U.S. economy directly reinforces a market consensus: the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates soon. The dollar index responded positively, and gold and silver prices were naturally suppressed. That said, the positive factors from Canadian data and the safe-haven appeal of precious metals helped prevent a one-sided decline, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The key focus now is—can gold and silver hold their critical support levels? If U.S. economic data continues to show strength, the downside pressure on precious metals will only increase.