Cosmos at a crossroads: tokenomics reforms and IBC expansion drive a new growth phase for ATOM

The Cosmos network is experiencing a pivotal moment. The ATOM token is currently valued at $2.53, up 2.46 percent over the past week, as the ecosystem prepares for fundamental changes to its economic model. The deadline for submitting reform proposals is approaching January 15, which could radically alter how the Cosmos network generates value for token holders.

The tokenomics reform addresses chronic challenges related to value accumulation in ATOM. The current model relies on staking rewards ranging from 7 to 20 percent, leading to significant dilution. Industry researchers are working on models that could reduce effective inflation by up to 60 percent. The proposed change would shift the revenue source — instead of relying solely on staking rewards, the network could generate income from transaction fees on main chains built on Cosmos infrastructure, such as dYdX and Cronos.

Market dynamics reflect investor expectations. The current market capitalization is $1.24 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $375.17 thousand. Growing trader interest is evident in conjunction with upcoming governance votes. If the proposals gain community approval, this could lead to a fundamental revaluation of the entire project.

Ecosystem grows regardless of token price

Recent functionality expansions demonstrate that Cosmos infrastructure is gaining importance despite earlier valuation issues. The public beta of the THORChain network enabled direct exchange of ATOM for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital currencies via the IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication) protocol. In the first 24 hours, the platform processed $42.7 million in volume, bypassing conventional wrapped assets and opening ATOM to the rich liquidity network of THORChain.

Developers are actively working on IBC integrations with the Solana network and Ethereum layer two. These integrations are planned for deployment in the first quarter of 2026. This expansion provides a fundamental narrative: despite ATOM falling 95.8 percent from its all-time high of $44.45 reached in 2022, Cosmos infrastructure adoption continues to accelerate.

Technical analysis: indecisive on short timeframes

In terms of price, ATOM is above key indicators — the Supertrend at $2.206 and the Parabolic SAR at $2.200. This confirms a change in momentum after testing support around $1.90 at the end of December. The current rally is the strongest weekly result since October, when the token briefly tested resistance above $5.00.

The daily chart shows a breakout of the consolidation range that suppressed movements throughout December. The price is approaching the downward trendline that has maintained gains since the July highs near $5.00. This trendline is currently at $2.80 — the first significant resistance test.

A bullish structure is forming at the following points:

• Immediate support: $2.40-$2.50
• Supertrend/SAR level: $2.20
• Critical support: $2.00
• First resistance: $2.80 (trendline)
• Main resistance: $3.20-$3.40

On shorter timeframes (30 minutes), ATOM consolidates within an upward channel between $2.55 and $2.70. An RSI of 51.28 indicates neutrality — the indicator previously reached overbought levels above 70 during the initial breakout. The MACD shows slight bearish divergence at -0.003, suggesting momentum slowdown.

The key boundary of the channel is near $2.65. A breakout above this level with increased volume would confirm further movement toward the daily resistance at $2.80. Failure to stay within the channel could open the door to $2.50, where buyers have been entering consistently in recent sessions.

Scenarios for the coming days

The next ten days will be decisive. If the tokenomics proposals meet expectations and governance votes favor community approval, Cosmos could move toward higher price targets. Breaking above $2.80 and overcoming the downward trendline could open the way to $3.20, with potential further growth to $3.80 if momentum is maintained.

A bearish scenario would occur if proposals disappoint or the governance process stalls. In that case, the rally could turn into a “sell the news” event. Losing $2.20 would invalidate the bullish structure and lead to testing support at $2.00. Breaking below this level would open the path to the $1.80-$1.70 zone.

Summary: Breaking above $2.80 would confirm a trend change, while losing $2.20 would negate the recent breakout. A fundamental change in ATOM’s tokenomics model could serve as the catalyst needed for a long-term recovery.