Importers face a race against time to claim up to 150 billion in tariffs if Trump falls before the Supreme Court

Uncertainty surrounds importing companies at a time when a judicial decision on the constitutionality of the broad global tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is expected. Experts estimate that approximately $150 billion in potential refunds could be at stake if the Supreme Court invalidates these measures.

The dilemma of recovering funds

Companies face a complicated landscape. Even if judges rule against the tariffs, recovering the paid money is far from guaranteed. Jim Estill, of Danby Appliances, a company that imports products such as refrigerators and laundry equipment from Asia, expressed concerns about a process that could turn into a “total disaster” if multiple parties claim participation in the recovered funds.

Danby Appliances has only paid $7 million in tariffs, but Estill anticipates complications not only with the government but also with his business partners like Home Depot, who could argue rights over those refunds.

Unprecedented magnitude of collections

Between February and December of the previous year, the Customs and Border Protection Agency recorded $133.5 billion in duties collected under the IEEPA. Recent projections suggest that the current figure could approach $150 billion, considering the average daily collections since late September.

Trump became the first president to use this law, historically reserved for sanctions against adversaries, for tariff purposes. The measures were based on national emergency arguments related to trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking.

Refund mechanisms in preparation

The Customs Office announced a technical change starting February 6 that will automate the distribution of refunds through its electronic ACE platform, replacing paper checks. Angela Lewis, customs director at Flexport, considers this a sign that the agency is prepared to act quickly if necessary.

However, legal specialists like those from firms represented in New York warn of complexities. Joseph Spraragen, a customs lawyer, indicates that the process will depend on whether the Court provides direct instructions or refers the matter to a lower court, likely the Court of International Trade.

Divergent business strategies

Some corporations like Costco have filed preventive lawsuits to preserve rights to future refunds, recognizing that legal guarantees are fragile. Bumble Bee Foods, Revlon, EssilorLuxottica, Kawasaki Motors, and Yokohama Tire have adopted similar strategies.

Smaller companies opt for alternatives. Kids2, a toy manufacturer that imports from China, has already sold its claims to hedge funds for only 23 cents per dollar in some cases, and just 9 cents in others. Basic Fun!, producer of Tonka and Care Bears toys, faces doubts about recovering its $6 million in tariffs.

Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun!, expressed skepticism about the government’s commitment to refunds, even under a court order. He is considering selling the claim post-verdict if it means faster payments.

Preparation and meticulous record-keeping

Business consultants recommend thorough documentation. Pete Mento of Baker Tilly advises that those who file claims early and correctly will be the first to receive payments. He warns that the process in Washington typically takes years before funds materialize.

The U.S. Treasury has experience with mass distributions, having handled hundreds of billions in annual tax refunds. However, a Treasury spokesperson did not respond regarding specific procedures for tariffs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the Court would support Trump. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested that new tariffs under other legal authorities could replicate lost revenue.

The legal and administrative battle has just begun, leaving importers navigating between hope, skepticism, and preparation for multiple scenarios.