The Eve of 2026: The Convergence of Technical Challenges and Risk Signals Facing XRP

XRP has decreased approximately 2.98% in the past 24 hours, and its weekly performance still ranks among the weaker sectors in the market, down 16 percentage points from last month’s high. The price repeatedly oscillates near the bottom boundary of the descending triangle, a pattern that typically indicates a continuation trend. Although a breakdown has not yet been confirmed, the market has already accumulated three risk signals, prompting traders to remain cautious during the closing phase of 2025.

Retail and Long-Term Holders Moving in the Same Direction to Exit

XRP remains trapped within the descending triangle, hovering near the support line. From December 18 to 27, although the price tested the upper side, the Money Flow Index (MFI) moved in the opposite direction. The MFI tracks the flow of funds in and out of assets. When the price rises but the MFI hits a low, it indicates retail investors are cashing out during each rebound rather than accumulating on dips. This selling pressure makes it difficult for XRP to break through the upper boundary of the triangle, repeatedly getting trapped below.

What is more concerning is the behavior of long-term holders. According to HODL volatility data, wallets holding for 2-3 years accounted for 14.26% on November 26, but this proportion sharply dropped to 5.66% by December 26. These wallets represent steadfast long-term believers, and their significant exit is eroding a layer of market support. While retail selling can be seen as normal market behavior, synchronized reduction in holdings by long-term believers is a dangerous signal.

Weakening Trend in Large Capital Flows

When both retail investors and long-term holders move in the same direction, a third validation signal comes from macro capital flows. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator also looks bleak. CMF combines volume and price changes to measure buying and selling pressure. For XRP, it has remained in negative territory, continuously sliding along the downward support line.

In other words: even if the price appears to stabilize, large capital interest in this asset is gradually waning, and the market shows a supply-dominant state. As long as CMF remains unrecovered, the market loses its last protective cushion. This is the fundamental reason why XRP cannot rebound strongly and can only fluctuate sideways.

Key Price Levels Determine the Outlook

Currently, XRP is trapped between $1.90 and $1.81. Since breaking below $1.90 on December 22, it has not recovered. Reclaiming $1.90 and testing $1.99 will be the first signs of strength, indicating a breakout above the triangle’s upper boundary and providing some actionable opportunities for bulls.

However, from the current perspective, the bearish scenario is clearer than the bullish one. If $1.81 breaks, XRP will officially exit the descending triangle, confirming a technical breakdown. This could open space for a decline toward $1.68, and if selling intensifies, $1.52 may also come into consideration.

These scenarios have not yet materialized, but the market has not shown strong counter-signals either. As long as retail investors continue to reduce holdings, long-term holders remain dispersed, and capital inflow remains weak, XRP will inevitably struggle to maintain its price. During this window before 2026, holders should pay close attention to the gains and losses at these critical price levels.