2026-01-18 12:10:48

#数字资产市场动态 When US stocks soar, Ethereum keeps bouncing off the $3300 level, while Russell 2000 small-cap stocks keep pushing higher, but ETH still can't keep up. It looks like the crypto market has completely decoupled from traditional finance.

But this surface phenomenon can be very misleading.

The key issue isn't that Ethereum underperforms US stocks—what's truly worth paying attention to is that the once tight correlation between the two is now loosening.

In recent years, Ethereum and US small-cap stocks have been highly correlated, basically rising and falling together. But now, this logic seems to be breaking down. At first glance, it might look like a recession signal, but in reality, this is a structural change that often occurs during macro cycle transitions—fundamental logic is being reoriented.

When macro narratives no longer hold, the market gradually shifts toward an internally consistent pricing system. In other words, the crypto market is starting to follow its own rules.

The real trends are brewing within the crypto ecosystem itself. The interaction patterns among core assets like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB , liquidity distribution, and ecosystem development expectations—these are the factors that will determine the future direction. Instead of fixating on the face of US stocks, it's better to focus on on-chain data and market structure changes.

The breakdown of correlation often signals that a new price discovery mechanism is being established.

ETH1,31%

BTC0,05%

BNB-0,12%

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SeasonedInvestor

· 6h ago

Decoupling? No, this is the start of independent development in crypto. We finally don't have to look at the US stock market's face anymore. --- ETH stuck at 3300 is really annoying, but looking at on-chain data tells a completely different story. --- What does loosening correlation mean? Funds are re-choosing sides. Smart money has long shifted into the ecosystem. --- US stocks rise but ETH stays still. Is anyone panicking? I actually think this is a signal. --- The key still depends on how BTC moves. That’s the real directional indicator. --- People who have been watching US stocks are definitely confused this time. Serves them right. --- On-chain data is the truth; candlestick charts are just surface-level stories. --- This decoupling is actually quite healthy, indicating that the crypto market is starting to have its own rhythm. --- So what if the Russell 2000 surges? The story of the Ethereum ecosystem is more valuable.

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FundingMartyr

· 6h ago

Decoupling? Nonsense, this is just the capital finding new directions. --- 3300 has been stuck for so long, indicating that the main players are accumulating, don’t be fooled by appearances. --- Honestly, compared to tracking the ups and downs of US stocks, monitoring on-chain data is more reliable. --- A loosening of correlation isn’t necessarily a bad thing; it actually indicates that ETH is starting to find its own rhythm. --- Another bunch of "macro cycle transition" theories. When the market comes, you'll naturally understand; if it doesn’t, more analysis is useless. --- Instead of waiting for US stocks to lead the rhythm, it’s better to watch how BTC and ETH interact, that’s the real core. --- I’ve long said that we shouldn’t focus solely on US stocks; on-chain ecology is the next main focus.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 6h ago

Wait a minute, decoupling ≠ positive news. This logic doesn't quite hold up. --- Correlation loosening? I just want to know where the bottom is, don’t tell me stories. --- What sounds nice is "own rules," but what’s harsh is that no one is paying attention. --- I trust on-chain data, but can the 3300 hurdle really be broken? --- The US stock market is surging, ETH is still idling. Is this what they call "internal pricing"? LOL. --- I've heard too many times about macro cycle transitions, but it still falls. --- The core asset interaction model... Bro, are you trying to say "band together for warmth"? --- It’s been decoupled for a long time, but the problem is that it falls even harder after decoupling. --- Instead of studying correlation, it’s better to watch whether BTC breaks its previous high.

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TommyTeacher1

· 6h ago

Decoupling is not a recession; it’s about establishing our own set of rules. --- The 3300 level has been stuck for too long. It feels like ETH is just waiting for a shift in the macro narrative. --- The key phrase is "loosening of relevance," not "complete decoupling." Details are very important. --- In the past, I followed the US stock market closely. Now, I’m developing my own rhythm, and that’s true maturity. --- On-chain data is the real king; don’t just stare at K-line charts all day. --- The capital logic is being reoriented. This statement is spot on, meaning a new round of market rally might be starting. --- It feels a bit like the night before the dawn—everything is brewing. --- The period of rupture is often the easiest to profit from. The question is, are you willing to take action? --- Wait, isn’t this about the crypto market developing independently? Then the performance logic of BTC and ETH needs to be reconsidered. --- Internal ecosystem interactions are the key. Alright, I’ll now focus on on-chain data.

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RugDocDetective

· 6h ago

Decoupling is the real story; the ups and downs of the US stock market have long been unable to control the crypto space. --- The $3300 level is really tough; it feels like the entire market sentiment has changed. --- Exactly, we shouldn't just focus on the US stock market; on-chain data is the true indicator. --- The loosening of correlation is indeed a signal; just not sure which way it will go next. --- Finally, someone clarified it—it's not ETH dropping the ball, but funds reorienting their direction. --- In that case, should we pay close attention to the movements between BTC and BNB? --- Seeing through it all, the crypto market is starting to hype itself up, while the US stock market is just a backdrop. --- This wave of divergence is quite interesting; a new pricing logic is really taking shape.

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FlatlineTrader

· 7h ago

3300 this level is really tough, it feels like ETH is playing at its own pace, US stocks love to rise and fall --- Decoupling, decoupling, sounds nice, but actually it’s just funds re-choosing sides --- On-chain data is the real truth, don’t keep hypnotizing yourself by staring at the K-line charts all day --- Correlation breakdown? Basically, the game rules have changed, see who reacts faster --- BTC ETH BNB, when will this iron triangle have some harmony, pulling together and crashing together, isn’t it tiring?

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WalletDetective

· 7h ago

ETH stuck at 3300 is really annoying, but decoupling might not be a bad thing after all Speaking of the loosening correlation, I agree from that perspective, but what do on-chain data say now? Are there big players quietly accumulating? It often signals that the macro narrative has failed when the market is about to see a black swan event Honestly, instead of waiting for signals from the US stock market, it's better to study the ecosystem yourself—this is the way for insiders The interaction pattern between BTC and ETH is the key; the era of small altcoins blindly following trends should be over Decoupling sounds nice, but it’s really just funds re-searching for value pockets Will on-chain data be more predictive of the next market move than US stocks? I'm very curious Correlation breakdowns are common, but this time feels different We still need to see real ecosystem development; false prosperity will eventually be exposed

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