#周末行情分析

Structural Opportunities in Volatility: My Watch-and-Test Strategy

This weekend's market sentiment is indeed very delicate. The consensus is that selling pressure has weakened, but in the absence of clear catalysts, the possibility of a "volatility correction" seems greater than a "strong rebound." Large funds are still waiting for more explicit signals, whether macro-level interest rate clues or Bitcoin ETF fund flow data. Therefore, I lean towards believing that this weekend will be a period of reduced volume consolidation and gradual bottoming, building momentum for the next directional move.

In this context, my focus will be on two levels:

1. Mainstream Coin Observation Anchor: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate
I will pay close attention to changes in the ETH/BTC rate over the weekend. Recent expectations around spot ETFs for Ethereum and the resurgence of Layer2 activity within its ecosystem could form relative strength during consolidation. If the exchange rate can hold above 0.06 and gently increase volume, it may trigger a rotation sentiment for a batch of altcoins. Conversely, if the rate continues to weaken, the overall market may still be dominated by Bitcoin's solo consolidation, with limited opportunities for other coins.

2. Altcoin Testing Directions: New Narratives and Strong Communities
During a weekend when mainstream coins may be sideways, some altcoins might instead experience independent volatility driven by light trading, strong communities, or event catalysts. Currently, I am focusing on two directions:

· Signs of stabilization after AI sector corrections: For example, RNDR, FET, etc. If they can consolidate with reduced volume near previous support levels, I will consider small positions to test in batches, aiming for a technical rebound from oversold conditions.
· The diffusion effect of the Gate Fun sector: Such as the previously mentioned Rainbow Horse, Sesame Community, etc. If there are launches or community activities over the weekend, they may attract short-term hot money. However, such operations are purely quick in and out, with no intention of long-term holding, keeping positions within 5%.

My specific operational approach:

· Main position (70%): Hold steady, even if there is a rebound, avoid chasing highs easily. Currently, cash is also a position.
· Testing position (20%): If ETH/BTC shows volume-driven surge, I will consider entering a small amount during ETH's pullback or choose high-quality Layer2 tokens in related ecosystems (such as ARB, OP).
· Entertainment position (10%): For short-term participation in the above altcoins or new tokens, strictly implement stop-loss (-8%) and avoid turning short-term trades into long-term traps.

Key Reminder:
Liquidity is usually weaker over the weekend, prone to sharp fluctuations triggered by small funds. Do not be swayed by sudden surges or drops. Be especially cautious of altcoins that suddenly jump 10%-20% on Saturday or Sunday, as they often lack sustainability.

At this market stage, "not trading" may require more discipline than "frequent trading." I will use the weekend to review this week's market, update my observation list, and wait for clearer signals.