Remember when I first entered the crypto world, I was truly a "newbie" or "chives." Every day chasing rises and selling dips, watching the hard-earned 10,000 USDT in my account, my mind full of dreams of overnight riches. In less than three months, it shrank to 6,000 USDT. That slap was quite harsh.

Later, I realized—news is unreliable, and hot topics can't be chased. I simply tore off all technical indicators and started from scratch to study the fundamental logic of trading. After 1095 days of trial and error, my account finally grew from 10,000 USDT to 810,000 USDT. I want to share some of the pitfalls I encountered and a few "stupid methods" I summarized along the way.

**Rapidly pumped coins, a fall doesn't necessarily mean a crash**

Does this scenario sound familiar: a certain coin suddenly surges high, you see the market turning red, and you quickly jump in. As a result, the price begins to drift down slowly, and you become increasingly anxious, finally biting the bullet and selling. Then it jumps back up again, making you regret missing out.

Don’t blame yourself for slow reactions. This is the favorite manipulation tactic of the big players. Rapid rise at high levels, followed by slow decline—that’s meant to scare out the weak-handed retail investors and force them to give up their chips. The truly dangerous top is often marked by a volume spike followed by a sharp plunge—that’s when you should run.

In October 2023, I experienced this firsthand: a coin rose 50% in two days, I bought the dip, thinking I was safe. But then it declined steadily for a whole week. I couldn’t stand the torment and sold everything. Less than three days later, it doubled again. That time, I finally understood the difference between "shakeout" and "true decline."

**Lingering rebound after a sharp drop is the real danger**

The easiest thing to get caught up in in crypto is those seemingly "buy-the-dip" opportunities after a crash. But are they really opportunities? Experience says, not necessarily.

You can understand a flash crash—when the market suddenly plunges due to bad news—that’s forced. But if after a crash, the price starts crawling back up slowly and weakly, that’s the most dangerous signal. It indicates the big players are collecting chips, and the bottom isn’t truly established yet. If you’re greedy for that last piece of meat, you’re likely to be the last to get hit.

**Set a discipline for yourself: volume and time don’t lie**

Market signals can deceive. Candlestick patterns can deceive. News is definitely more deceptive. But there are two things that never lie: volume and time.

A sharp rise must be accompanied by increased volume; otherwise, it’s just bluffing. True bottom reversals require time to confirm—they won’t be turned upside down by one or two candlesticks. When I analyze the market now, I mainly look at these two things—whether the trading volume is genuinely increasing, and whether the rebound’s time cycle is long enough.

Also, don’t be carried away by short-term emotional fluctuations. The market on exchanges changes every second, but truly good opportunities to bet on are not that frequent. Better to miss ten trades than to get caught up in the wrong one.

Sharing these not to boast. Many people make money in crypto, but very few can survive long. What this market has taught me is—study the logic diligently, don’t try to chase shortcuts. Those with patience will ultimately do well.