#周末行情分析 Bitcoin price continues its rebound on the hourly chart, with the current price (95,258.9) testing the core resistance zone formed by the convergence of MA30 (95,215.0) and MA50 (95,242.4). Although the price has already broken above the short-term moving averages (MA5-MA20), whether it can effectively break through the medium-term moving average resistance is key to determining if this rebound will evolve into a trend reversal.

Key Technical Analysis:

1. Moving Average Defense and Attack: MA30 and MA50 in the 95,215-95,242 range form a clear "watershed" of strength and weakness. The current price is near the upper edge of this zone, and whether it breaks through or encounters resistance and pulls back will soon be revealed. The lower MA5-MA20 (95,129-95,132) has turned into short-term support.
2. Momentum Shift: The MACD indicator shows positive changes, with the green momentum bars (MACD: 14.7) continuing to appear, and the DIF line (-33.9) showing a clear upward trend, indicating that the bearish momentum is significantly weakening and the short-term rebound strength is increasing. However, both lines are still below the zero axis, and reversing the overall pattern requires more time or stronger upward momentum.
3. Structural Definition: The price remains within a large range from 94,800 (recent strong support) to 95,600 (previous high resistance). The current rebound has reached the upper part of this range and tested the medium-term moving average resistance, which is one of the last defensive positions for the bears.
4. Key Level Confirmation:
· Upper Resistance: 95,242 (MA50) → 95,462 (Intraday High) → 95,600 (Previous High).
· Lower Support: 95,130 (MA20/MA5) → 94,900 → 94,800 (Lower Boundary of the Range, the Bull-Bear Lifeline).

BTC hourly rebound strength has increased, reaching a critical technical resistance zone that will determine the short-term bullish or bearish fate. The improvement in MACD momentum is a positive signal, but a price breakthrough is ultimately needed for confirmation. Traders should avoid blindly opening positions near resistance levels and patiently wait for the market to make a directional choice, using key price levels as the basis for their trades.