The recent decline in $BTC is mainly influenced by two factors.

First is the trade situation. The US has imposed tariffs on major trading partners like Europe, triggering friction between Europe and the US, and Europe may even retaliate with countermeasures. This geopolitical risk directly impacts market sentiment, causing risk appetite to shrink immediately. The data is clear—by October 2025, US imports from the EU reached $537.9 billion, more than double the imports from China. Europe's exports to the US are mainly concentrated in consumer goods. If tariffs are increased, US inflation pressures will rise accordingly, affecting the overall financial market expectations.

Second is the policy-level setback. The advancement of the CLARITY Act has stalled, and the draft bill includes many restrictive clauses on stablecoin yields. The market's hope for a regulatory framework has been dashed, leading to a realization of valuation premiums, and previously added leverage is beginning to withdraw.

Looking ahead, three key points to watch are: Will tariffs continue to escalate? Will Europe initiate a retaliation list? Can the Supreme Court quickly issue an opinion on the legality of the tariffs?

The most critical action is from the Supreme Court. Once signals of acceptance or accelerated review appear, risk appetite could turn around; otherwise, the trend will continue to de-leverage. The CLARITY Act cannot support the market in the short term. Without new stimulus factors, the likely scenario is sideways consolidation, with conflicts intensifying if tensions escalate further. If tensions ease or the court releases positive signals, a rebound could happen quite rapidly.

So today's decline can be seen as the first impact of the tariff wave. Whether the market will continue to fall depends mainly on whether tariffs and retaliations between Europe and the US escalate tonight into tomorrow, and whether the court responds quickly. If there are no new developments, the market may just oscillate and recover gradually; but if pressure persists, the probability of further decline tomorrow remains high.