Portugal is part of the growing wave of blockades against Polymarket

In recent days, Portugal has joined an increasingly long list of nations that are taking strict measures against Polymarket, the blockchain-based predictive markets platform. Portuguese authorities have ordered the closure of the service in the country after detecting massive betting activity linked to the presidential elections in mid-January, exceeding €103 million in stakes recorded on the platform.

Portugal orders the blocking of Polymarket for violation of the law

Portugal’s gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has ordered Polymarket to cease all operations in the national territory within 48 hours. According to local sources, the platform does not have the necessary license to offer betting services in Portugal and was operating in violation of national legislation.

Betting on the outcomes of political events is a clear violation of Portugal’s Online Gambling Law of 2015, which only allows bets on sports competitions, casino games and horse racing. The SRIJ pointed out that “the website is not allowed to offer betting in Portugal, as national law prohibits betting operations concerning political events, both national and international.”

Although Polymarket remains theoretically accessible through standard internet connections, Portuguese authorities may soon order internet service providers to block the platform locally. Other alternative predictive markets, such as Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless, are also still reachable from the Portuguese territory, but remain the subject of attention by the authorities.

Polymarket’s global situation: over 30 countries with restrictions

Polymarket, founded in 2020, is facing increasing regulatory pressure on an international scale. The platform is already subject to significant restrictions in over 30 countries, including Singapore, Russia, Belgium, Italy, and Ukraine. Some states have taken different approaches: Belgium has blacklisted the site, while France has opted for an intermediate solution by allowing local users to access it in view-only mode, thus preventing betting operations.

Portugal’s lockdown represents the latest evolution of a global trend towards curbing unregulated predictive markets. Regulators around the world are increasingly concerned about the lack of consumer protection and the risks associated with platforms operating outside national regulatory frameworks.

Regulatory dynamics in the United States and the European context

Meanwhile, a parallel debate is emerging in the United States about the regulation of prediction markets. The chairman of the Foreign Exchange Security Commission, Paul Atkins, recently stated that “the time is opportune” for 401(k) retirement plans to include digital assets, as long as this is done through a measured pathway with adequate protections for savers. The statements come as the U.S. Senate is drafting new legislation on the structure of crypto markets, aimed at expanding the role of the Futures Trading Committee and clarifying the boundaries of oversight with other federal agencies.

The international regulatory environment remains fragmented, with Portugal representing another piece in the patchwork of European countries taking strong positions against unauthorised predictive markets, while other jurisdictions continue to develop more nuanced approaches to regulating the digital asset sector.