🖌️___First, the conclusion:
75,000 is not the bottom, but the threshold for entering a deep bear market.
Once effectively broken below, the market should no longer focus on "rebound correction," but switch to monthly-level defense, paying attention to the range 65,000 → 58,000.
The reason is simple: the adjustment level has changed.
From February to April last year, it was a weekly adjustment, but this current round has upgraded to a monthly adjustment.
Larger scale means longer time and deeper space, so 74,000–75,000 no longer meet the conditions for a trend bottom, at most just a correction or emotional rebound point.
Monthly support structure (from weak to strong):
70,800: Major wave 0.5, only a short-term rebound, not a mid-term value
64,800 (key): Monthly EMA52, the start of the main upward wave, may have a rebound but not a reversal
57,700: Major wave 0.618, strong structural support, falling here will start a discussion on whether the cycle has ended
Summary in one sentence:
75,000 is a threshold, not the bottom;
The truly mid-term worthy area is below 65,000.
75,000 is not the bottom, but the threshold for entering a deep bear market.
Once effectively broken below, the market should no longer focus on "rebound correction," but switch to monthly-level defense, paying attention to the range 65,000 → 58,000.
The reason is simple: the adjustment level has changed.
From February to April last year, it was a weekly adjustment, but this current round has upgraded to a monthly adjustment.
Larger scale means longer time and deeper space, so 74,000–75,000 no longer meet the conditions for a trend bottom, at most just a correction or emotional rebound point.
Monthly support structure (from weak to strong):
70,800: Major wave 0.5, only a short-term rebound, not a mid-term value
64,800 (key): Monthly EMA52, the start of the main upward wave, may have a rebound but not a reversal
57,700: Major wave 0.618, strong structural support, falling here will start a discussion on whether the cycle has ended
Summary in one sentence:
75,000 is a threshold, not the bottom;
The truly mid-term worthy area is below 65,000.
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