#加密市场回调 February 2, 2026 BTC/ETH Market Analysis: Negative News Pressure, Weak Technicals, Prioritize Defensive Operations

On February 2, 2026, the global financial markets continued to experience intense volatility, with panic spreading from the epic plunge of precious metals into the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both came under pressure simultaneously, with market selling pressure intensifying and investor confidence severely damaged. This article will analyze the core market logic from two perspectives: news and technicals, and provide targeted operational suggestions to help investors rationally respond to the current extreme行情.
1. News Face: Multiple Negative Factors Resonating, Market Uncertainty Soaring
The weak performance of the cryptocurrency market today mainly stems from macro policy expectations shifting, global liquidity tightening, and capital flows diverting, with multiple negative factors fermenting simultaneously. Short-term uncertainty has become the main contradiction suppressing the market.
(1) Federal Reserve Chair Change Sparks Liquidity Concerns, Risk Assets Under Collective Pressure
Once the U.S. President proposed Kevin Woorh, a former Federal Reserve Board member, as the next Fed Chair, it became the trigger for a global asset sell-off. The market generally believes Woorh is more hawkish than the current Chair Powell, explicitly opposing quantitative easing and advocating tightening balance sheets to curb inflation. Even if supporting rate cuts, he is likely to maintain the tone of “rate cuts without loosening liquidity.” This expectation directly led to a strengthening dollar, with large-scale capital outflows from risk assets like cryptocurrencies and precious metals—after all, in a liquidity-tightening environment, safe assets like U.S. Treasuries become more attractive, while volatile assets like BTC and ETH face capital outflows. According to statistics, affected by this, over the past 24 hours, crypto derivatives contracts have experienced over $2.5 billion in liquidations, with 420,000 traders liquidated, of which more than 90% were long positions. Market panic has reached a temporary high.
(2) Global Asset Sell-Off Spreads, Crypto Correlation Risks Highlighted
The recent decline in cryptocurrencies is not an isolated event but a reflection of synchronized adjustments in global financial markets. After the Fed Chair nomination news, precious metals markets experienced an epic crash, with gold futures recording the largest single-day dollar decline on record, silver plunging 31%, the largest since March 1980. Global stock markets, precious metals, and crypto market caps evaporated by over $6.5 trillion in one day. Under systemic selling pressure, cryptocurrencies failed to show safe-haven attributes and instead accelerated their decline due to risk aversion. Notably, the correlation between BTC and the safe-haven currency JPY rose to a historic high, weakening the traditional safe-haven status of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the recovery of AI-related stocks and precious metals continued to divert capital, further intensifying liquidity pressure on the crypto market.
(3) Supply-Demand and Capital Divergence, Long-term Benefits Hard to Power Short-term Rally
From an asset supply-demand perspective, ETH shows signs of supply tightening, with about 45% of ETH locked or difficult to sell. Exchange-held ETH decreased by 14.5% this quarter, but this reduction in supply has not translated into price support, mainly due to weak market demand and lack of incremental capital inflow. Regarding BTC, spot ETF capital inflows have significantly slowed or even reversed, with clear signs of institutional exit. Coupled with the continued selling after passive onboarding by major CEXs, short-term market selling pressure is unlikely to fully clear. Although long-term factors such as the advancement of U.S. crypto regulation and ETH’s leadership in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization remain positive, the current market’s core contradiction is focused on negative digestion and leverage liquidation. Long-term positives are unlikely to offset short-term selling pressure.
2. Technical Perspective: Weakness Confirmed, Key Supports Face Severe Tests
From the technical patterns of BTC and ETH, both have broken previous consolidation structures and entered clear downtrends, with key support levels repeatedly breached. Rebound momentum is extremely scarce, making the short-term weak pattern difficult to reverse.
(1) BTC: Bearish Arrangement Dominates, Double Bottom Validity Questioned
BTC’s daily chart shows a clear bearish arrangement, with prices staying below the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages, which are diverging downward, indicating a full bearish trend dominating the market. Looking at specific movements, BTC sharply dropped from around $83,000, then briefly oscillated between $77,000 and $79,400. This morning, it broke down to $75,658, forming a short-term double bottom with the Saturday low, but volume did not increase correspondingly, casting doubt on the double bottom’s validity. The rebound lacks volume support. Key support is at $75,000–$75,500, which is both the short-term double bottom and a previous high-volume zone. A breakdown below this level would open further downside space, with the next support near $72,000. Resistance is at $79,000–$80,000, the upper boundary of yesterday’s trading range and an important psychological level. Only a volume breakout and stabilization above this zone could alleviate the short-term weakness; otherwise, a rebound may face renewed selling pressure. On the hourly chart, despite oversold signals and a MACD bullish crossover brewing, rebound strength remains limited, unable to change the overall bearish pattern.
(2) ETH: More Weakness Than BTC, Bearish Structure Complete
ETH’s overall trend is weaker than BTC, with new lows forming a classic “lower lows and lower highs” bearish pattern. Prices stay far from short-term moving averages, with more obvious weakness. Volume analysis shows no significant increase during declines or rebounds, indicating declining market activity and strong wait-and-see sentiment, with little active buying interest. Key support is at $2,200–$2,230, the zone formed by today’s low and Saturday’s low, serving as the last line of defense for bulls in the short term. A breakdown here would lead to a further decline toward $2,000, with market sentiment likely worsening. Resistance is at $2,400–$2,470, the yesterday’s trading range, where rebounds are likely to face selling pressure and fail to break through effectively. On the hourly chart, ETH also shows oversold conditions, but rebound momentum is insufficient, with the $2,350–$2,400 zone as a short-term resistance.
3. Operational Suggestions: Prioritize Defense, Avoid Blind Bottom Fishing, Strict Risk Control
The current market is in an extreme volatility cycle, with negative factors not fully digested. The technical pattern is clearly weak. Investors should abandon wishful thinking, adhere to the core principles of “defense first, cautious observation,” strictly control position sizes, and avoid blind bottom fishing. The following are targeted operational suggestions for reference (markets change rapidly; adjust according to real-time trends; strict stop-loss and take-profit are essential):
(1) Core Principle: Strict Position Control, Adhere to Stop-Loss
Regardless of long or short operations, keep positions within 10–20% of total capital, avoid high leverage, and prevent liquidation risks caused by extreme market volatility. All trades must have clear stop-loss points: for BTC, stop-loss at no more than $1,500–$2,000; for ETH, no more than $80–$120. Never trade without stop-loss; securing profits and avoiding losses is the current market’s survival rule.
(2) BTC Trading Strategy: Short on Rebound Resistance
Use shorting as the main strategy when facing rebound resistance. Cautiously buy the dip for short-term rebounds. If BTC encounters resistance at $78,500–$79,000 (e.g., bearish candles, declining volume), enter small short positions targeting $76,000–$75,500. If support breaks, add to short positions, aiming toward $72,000. Be extremely cautious with buy-the-dip; only attempt small long positions when clear reversal signals appear at the $75,000–$75,500 support zone (e.g., volume-increasing bullish engulfing, two consecutive bullish candles). Target $78,000–$79,000, with a stop-loss below $74,800. Exit immediately if support is broken.
(3) ETH Trading Strategy: Weak Rebounds Face Pressure
ETH’s weakness is more obvious, with more opportunities for shorting during rebounds than buying the dip. If ETH encounters resistance at $2,350–$2,400, consider small short positions targeting $2,250–$2,230. If support at $2,200 breaks, further downside targets are $2,100–$2,000. Buying the dip is only recommended when there are clear stabilization signals at $2,200–$2,230, with very small positions. Target $2,300–$2,350, with a stop-loss below $2,190. Exit immediately if support fails to avoid deep losses.
(4) Long-term and Short-term Position Planning
Short-term traders (1–3 days) should mainly observe, waiting for clear signs of stabilization (e.g., 2–3 consecutive green days, volume expansion) before entering. Mid- to long-term investors (1–3 months) can patiently wait for better entry points, focusing on buying below $72,000 for BTC and below $2,000 for ETH, building positions gradually without chasing the bottom, while closely monitoring Fed policies and global liquidity changes.