Published an analytical report: Gold has entered the window for portfolio formation. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, Trump stated: "In the future, the Fed Chair may work in the White House." The bank predicts that subsequent statements by Walsh on monetary policy will be more dovish than market expectations, which weakens expectations of a hawkish Fed policy and simultaneously increases the risk that the U.S. will enter a stagflation phase. After the March Fed rate meeting, international gold prices corrected downward, and currently increasing the gold share in the portfolio is considered highly secure.

　　The main theses of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

In the initial period of the energy shock, gold prices experience short-term pressure
　　Looking at the historical dynamics of gold prices after energy shocks, a rapid rise in oil and other resource prices often first raises expectations of a hawkish Fed monetary policy, which does not always favor gold prices — on the contrary, it can experience temporary pressure; at the end of February 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched an offensive and carried out airstrikes on Iran. Since the onset of the Iranian crisis, WTI crude oil prices rose from $67.02 per barrel on February 27 to $96.57 per barrel on April 10, an increase of 44.09%. During the same period, gold prices on the COMEX exchange decreased from $5,278.3 per ounce to $4,746.9 per ounce, a decline of 10.07%.

When energy prices increase systemically, gold prices demonstrate strength
　　However, as the market gradually accepts the systemic rise in energy prices and begins to trade on long-term inflation inertia, weakening monetary trust, and stagflation risks, gold's properties as an inflation hedge and safe haven come to the forefront again, usually accompanied by a shift from pressure to strengthening prices.