Short-term easing probability is high, but the long-term confrontation logic will not disappear.

1️⃣ About "20-year pause vs short-term compromise"
From a realistic perspective, there is a possibility that Iran will make phased concessions, but it is more like strategic buffering rather than a complete shift.
Geopolitical games have reached this stage, and everyone needs a "time window" rather than a one-time solution.
2️⃣ The ceiling of this rebound
This wave of rise is essentially driven by the decline in risk expectations leading to capital inflow, not by fundamentals.
So I would define it as a "rebound rally," not the start of a new cycle.
In the short term:
If Bitcoin's sentiment continues to improve, there is a chance to push near previous highs
But without sustained positive news, it’s easy to oscillate or even fall back from high levels.
3️⃣ How to adjust asset allocation?
In the current situation, I prefer a "defensive with offensive" portfolio:
Crude oil: Short-term volatility will be large, but it’s not suitable for chasing highs.
Precious metals: Continue as a hedge allocation, and keep the position.
Crypto assets: Slightly increase, but not go all-in.
Simply put:
Keep some positions to catch the rebound, but leave room for uncertainty.
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