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BTC security myth busted? Researcher: "$10 billion + 10GW of electricity" can launch the Majority Attack, and large institutions can easily short and profit
Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake recently stated that Ethereum will soon return to deflation, while BTC will be eliminated as it approaches the 21 million supply limit. Why does he think so? (Background: Vitalik: I once wanted to give up Ethereum! Retail investors in the crypto world think that 'meme gambling' is the best, will I be happy?) (Background: Polkadot founder Gavin Wood: The Satoshi coefficient in Polkadot is 149, the degree of decentralization is much higher than Ethereum and Solana) Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake predicted on the 5th that Ethereum will 'soon' return to being an 'Ultra Sound Money,' while BTC is 'done for' because BTC is gradually approaching the 21 million supply limit, sparking heated discussions. After The Merge, Ethereum's consensus mechanism switched from PoW to PoS, reducing the daily issuance by about 90%, causing ETH supply to enter deflation for a period, and the community began to refer to it as 'Ultra Sound Money' in contrast to BTC's concept of 'Sound Money.' Justin Drake pointed out: The current annual growth rate of ETH supply is 0.5%, meaning that the annual 1% issuance reduction minus the annual 0.5% burn rate needs to occur for Ethereum to become 'Ultra Sound Money' again, and I believe both will happen. Is BTC at risk? Since Ethereum completed The Merge in 2022, ETH supply has become deflationary, but after the Dencun upgrade in April 2024, the issuance showed a net increase because the upgrade reduced the L2 transaction fees, leading to a decrease in the burn rate. However, Justin Drake compared the issuance of Ethereum and BTC and found that Ethereum is still scarcer than BTC. Since the Dencun upgrade, BTC supply has increased by 655,000 coins, while Ethereum supply has increased by 462,000 ETH during the same period. Currently, BTC's supply rises by 0.83% annually, 66% faster than ETH. Justin Drake also stated that BTC's 21 million supply limit may lead to long-term security concerns, as Miner income still mainly comes from block rewards. In the past week, 99% of Miner income came from block rewards, with only 1% coming from network transaction fees. In Justin Drake's view, BTC is outdated and faces security risks due to its lower attack cost: BTC's network is done for, launching a permanent 51% attack on BTC would only require about $10 billion and 10 GW of power, which is negligible for national institutions. We know that BTC issuance undergoes Halving approximately every four years. Drake's concern is that in the future, network transaction fees may not be able to cover Miner costs. However, the author believes that Drake's view is an over-explanation. First, mining enterprise profits and costs are dynamic, and even if the BTC network stops issuing after 2140, it does not mean that all Miners will stop computing. BTC is like gold since the issuance of ETH and BTC after the Ethereum merge. Image source: ultrasound.money Introducing the 'Croissant Issuance' model for Ethereum As for current issues with Ethereum, such as excessive staking and systemic risks on liquidity stake platforms like Lido… Justin Drake proposed the 'Croissant Issuance' model, which means that when 50% of Ethereum's supply is staked, the issuance will drop to zero, with the maximum issuance limited to not exceed 1% annually to ensure market balance: The real key to massive ETH burn is to improve data availability (DA). EIP-4844 temporarily drops the burn rate, but as demand rises, ETH burn will rebound. We are building infrastructure for the next few decades, even centuries. This is a game of patience and belief. Related reports: Trump's son shouts: It's time to add Ethereum, but was exposed for moving $300 million in assets to the exchange for a 'Pump and Dump'? Which institutions hold Ethereum ETFs? Check out the complete list of 13F filings EthereumPectra upgrade coming in March, Vitalik: It can double the capacity of Layer 2! Gas limit increases for the first time in the PoS era