Degentrading

this is a good spot to be adding to nuclear names that are down across the board

$CBRS - pretty volatile IPO trading for this - but opening at $385 before being halted - looks like momentum for this is dwindling. odd. personally thought that this would go higher

pre mkt thoughts
most degens (and me! im just a degen pls dont hurt me uwu) are probably eagerly awaiting one of the biggest IPOs for this year - $CBRS
touted as a $nvda killer - this is currently trading on HL with v thin volume at $285 - priced at $185 in the IPO round. originally was filed at 115-125 range on may 4 before being bumped all the way up.
the bear thesis for this is that it effectively only has OAI as a client right now.... valuation wise it is at 510M 2025 rev so ~ current valuations definitely come from the hope that they can supplant $nvda as the only game in town!
trading w

the support levels for some of the recent runners are 30-50% lower... not saying they will nuke down to that.
$SNDK 770 -45%
$MU 480 -40%
$INTC 72 -40%
the trend is your friend until it bends.

1/n - Do prediction markets predict? Or do they cause the event itself?

mid day thoughts
- 10y yields at 4.5% and 30y at 5.05% - yields are breaking out for the 30y and while this probably doesnt stop the equity train, i think this will definitely sap some momentum from the market.
- memory continues to hold with $mu outperforming $sndk
- $WOLF has held on to its pre market gains but another dark knight emerges - $NOK trades strongly above 14 - making a almost 10% gain for the day. This could be related to speculation building upon $NOK being mentioned in $NVDA earnings call for next week

pre mkt thoughts
MU @ 810, SNDK @ 1530 SMH @ 575 pre mkt - very strong bounce across memory names - sets up into some interesting trades to take on NYO.
Citrini dropped a new ticker - $WOLF. this is currently up 22% in pre market and was up almost 40% at one point... take about crazy moves. However, bear in mind $WOLF is pretty much a cheap binary play @ 2B mkt cap (then) on the SiC thesis....either this works or it doesnt and the company goes back into bankruptcy because of its capex. for those who arent familiar, go read the lore. it's quite juicy
Away from that, Unitree dropped its newest

also it is a little crazy to me that people refused to buy $MU at 630 because its ATH but are actually excited to buy $MU at 730 because it dropped 10%?

quick thoughts pre mkt
Korea had a scare in the early morning when a policymaker floated the idea of redistribution of "gains" from the memory shortage beneficiaries like samsung and SK Hynix. IMO - This is why there is a valuation gap between KR, JP and US equities. Stock and equity holders do not share the same protections that they are afforded in the US.
Aside from that, these comments are probably a first indication that while the AI roll out is indeed REAL. Governments may have to step in to equitise between the "haves" and "haves not". What that means is equity price down.
Overall, i

What to keep a tight eye on - $AAOI and $SIVE - On market open, if $AAOI takes a sustained drawdown, could lead to potential derisking across the serenity tickers. $SIVE is already down 10% today

1/n - Back in Jul 2024, i laid out my thesis for $GLXY at $8.1, in Nov 2025 - i advocated for $INTC (~$38). My strongest conviction now is in Nuclear

bad headline for $MSFT

Earnings Capex guide
$META guided capex to top of 145b
$GOOG guided to 180-190b
$MSFT guided to 190b
generally all capex estimates for 2026 was just guided about 10b higher on avg - $META down 10% and $MSFT down 3.6% as the market punishes them for having too much capex vs fcf

Some thoughts -
We have 4 of the hyperscalers going into earnings today $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT $META - market will probably be watching the hyperscalers for their capex guidance. Any slowing down will be bearish for AI tickers while the market reaction to upside surprises can be a good gauge of strength. As a reminder, post $TSMC blow out earnings, it actually suffered a drop.
Expectations going into earnings
$META - the largest announced step up in capex, 2026 guidance of $115-135b from 2025's 69B. If $META delivers anything close to 30B for Q1, that will be an indication for urgency
$AMZN - 20

Some thoughts -
$NVDA going for a breakout will probably suck liquidity for AI names first before resetting the floor for AI valuations.
However, yst $POET dropping led to big hits in unrelated names like $SIVE, $LPTH - shows how much retail concentration and unrealised PnL there is in the market.
If $NVDA fails to break out, this is probably the local top in AI and high beta names will get hit
This week, we have most of the big names announcing earnings and also their CAPEX plans. While i dont think there will be any material shock to the numbers, the market's reaction will be interesting to