CZ does not return to Binance after being pardoned by Trump? Polymarket betting odds crash from 82% to 32%

Binance founder CZ hinted that he might not immediately return to the operations of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. After U.S. President Trump pardoned CZ, he plans to focus more on the investment business of his family office YZi Labs. Bets on Polymarket have changed significantly, with the odds of CZ's return reaching 82% at one point; however, this odds have now dropped to 32%, while the “no” bets lead with odds of 68%.

Trump pardons CZ and shifts focus to YZi Labs investment business

Binance founder CZ may focus on family office YZi Labs instead of returning to the crypto assets exchange Binance. In response to a post on X regarding a Caixin report that CZ plans to put more effort into YZi Labs' investment business rather than an immediate return to the exchange, he stated: “This makes a lot of sense.” Although this statement is not a clear commitment, it suggests CZ's alignment with this career plan.

YZi Labs is a family office and investment agency founded by CZ after he left his position as CEO of Binance in 2023. According to public information, YZi Labs focuses on investing in cutting-edge fields such as blockchain, AI, and biotechnology. The agency has invested in projects including Opinion Labs, Telegram-related projects, and several AI and DeFi protocols. YZi Labs' investment portfolio indicates that CZ's interests have expanded from merely operating an exchange to a broader spectrum of technology and innovation.

CZ further emphasized transparency, confirming that his last interview was in September, “not recently.” Since being pardoned by U.S. President Donald Trump, he has not taken any interviews with media or individuals. This clarification is aimed at Caixin's report, as CZ wants to make it clear that this is not his direct interview content. However, his acknowledgment of the “YZi Labs investment business” (“this sounds reasonable”) suggests that it indeed reflects his current professional direction.

The post also emphasizes that multiple governments have invited him to serve as an official advisor for the Crypto Assets industry. Notably, he is a cryptocurrency advisor for several countries, including Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan. During the launch of the national stablecoin and CBDC on the BNB chain in Kyrgyzstan, he attended alongside Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov. These government advisory roles demonstrate that after Trump pardoned CZ, his influence has not only remained intact but has expanded into the policy-making arena.

From a career planning perspective, focusing on investment and advisory roles may be more attractive than returning to the management of Binance. As an investor, CZ can allocate a broader project portfolio, diversify risks, and participate in multiple innovative fields. As an advisor, he can influence crypto policies in various countries and expand his global influence. In contrast, returning to the CEO position at Binance, while restoring his direct control over the exchange, also means taking on heavy management responsibilities and regulatory pressures again.

Three Major Reasons CZ Focuses on YZi Labs:

Legal Considerations: As part of the plea agreement, CZ may still be subject to terms that prohibit him from holding management positions at Binance.

Professional Appeal: Investment and advisory roles offer greater freedom and broader influence.

Binance Current Status: Binance is operating well under the new leadership, with no urgent need for CZ to return.

Polymarket odds plummeted from 82% to 32% reflecting a change in expectations

(Source: Polymarket)

In the past week, significant developments have sparked speculation about CZ possibly returning to the world's leading crypto assets exchange on December 31. Most notably, U.S. President Donald Trump granted CZ a presidential pardon on October 23. Following the news of Trump's pardon, betting on Polymarket surged, with the odds of CZ's return reaching as high as 82%. This extremely high probability reflects the initial excitement in the market: now that legal barriers have been cleared, CZ's return to Binance seems to be a natural outcome.

However, the odds have now dropped to 32%, while the “no” bets remain ahead with odds of 68%. The plunge from 82% to 32% indicates a dramatic shift in market expectations. This reversal is mainly due to two factors. First, CZ's own public statements suggest that he has little interest in returning to Binance and is more inclined to focus on YZi Labs and advisory work. Second, market participants are beginning to rationally analyze the legal and business realities: even if Trump grants a pardon and removes criminal liability, the restrictive clauses in the civil agreement may still be valid.

As a prediction market, Polymarket's odds reflect the collective judgment of market participants. When real money is at stake, this judgment is often more accurate than simple polls or expert predictions. The change from 82% to 32% shows that after an initial emotional reaction, the market is gradually returning to rational analysis. Currently, a 32% probability means that the market believes there is a possibility of CZ returning to Binance, but it is not high. The more likely scenario is that he participates in Binance in other ways (such as a board member or strategic advisor), rather than resuming the CEO position.

Trump's recent pardon has intensified speculation about his potential comeback, but as more information is disclosed and CZ's own attitude becomes clearer, market expectations are adjusting. For investors focused on Binance and CZ, the current signal is: do not expect CZ to return to the Binance management team in the short term, but his influence over Binance and involvement in the crypto industry will not disappear; it will just take a different form.

BNB price rising against the trend shows market rationality

BNB price has increased by more than 3% in the past 24 hours, with the current trading price at $1,156. The 24-hour low and high are $1,120 and $1,161 respectively. Trading volume has increased by 62% in the past 24 hours, supported by strong interest from traders, which has driven the price up. This price performance is worth analyzing in depth, as it shows that the market's reaction to the news of “CZ not returning to Binance” is positive rather than negative.

Theoretically, if the market believes that CZ's return is crucial for Binance, then the news that “CZ may not return to Binance” should trigger a decline in the price of BNB. However, the actual situation is quite the opposite, with the price of BNB rising and trading volume increasing significantly. This counterintuitive market reaction may be based on the following logic: Trump's pardon itself is a significant positive, as it eliminates the legal uncertainties facing CZ; CZ not returning to Binance means the stability of the current management team is confirmed, avoiding the turmoil that power transitions could bring; CZ focusing on investment and advisory roles could bring more strategic collaborations and resources to the Binance ecosystem.

CoinGlass data shows that there is a large amount of buying in the derivatives market. As of the writing of this article, the total open interest of BNB futures has surged by 8% over the past 24 hours, reaching $1.84 billion. The open interest of Binance's BNB futures has increased by more than 7%. This indicates a bullish sentiment among derivatives traders.

An 8% increase in open interest signifies an addition of approximately $136 million in leveraged positions. Such a scale of capital inflow indicates that professional traders are confident about the prospects of BNB. From market behavior analysis, derivatives traders are often more professional and possess more information than spot traders. When they choose to establish large long positions, it is usually based on in-depth research of the fundamentals and technical aspects.

From Binance's perspective, CZ not returning may actually be a positive development. The new CEO has been leading Binance for nearly two years. Under his leadership, Binance has successfully navigated multiple regulatory challenges and reached settlements with regulators in several countries. Teng's regulatory background (he was an official at the Monetary Authority of Singapore) makes him more adept at handling compliance issues. If CZ were to suddenly return, it could disrupt the current management rhythm and even raise new concerns for regulators. Therefore, maintaining the status quo may be the most advantageous choice for Binance.

Trump's pardon eliminates legal risks, but business decisions have other considerations

US President Donald Trump granted President CZ a pardon on October 23, which is undoubtedly a significant turning point in CZ's life. The pardon eliminated CZ's criminal record, allowing him to travel freely and engage in business activities, no longer restricted by the US judicial system. This removal of legal barriers created the possibility for CZ to return to Binance.

However, legal possibilities do not equate to business necessity or personal willingness. From a business perspective, Binance has been operating well under Teng's leadership, with a solid market share and continuously improving compliance framework. If CZ were to return, it might be seen as a lack of trust in Teng, undermining the unity of the management team. From a personal perspective, CZ is already 48 years old, has experienced the pressures of imprisonment and legal disputes, and may wish to live a freer and more diversified life rather than return to the 24/7 operations of the exchange.

The political implications of Trump's pardon for CZ are also worth pondering. Trump characterized CZ's case as part of the Biden administration's “encryption war,” and the pardon is a move to correct this injustice. This narrative provides CZ with the image of a “victim of political persecution,” which actually enhances his reputation within the Crypto Assets community. With this kind of aura, CZ's participation as an investor and industry leader may be more influential than returning to the management of Binance.

For investors, the key question is not “Will CZ return to Binance?” but rather “What is the long-term outlook for Binance and BNB?” From the current market reaction, the answer is positive. The increase in BNB prices and open contracts indicates that the market is confident about the future of Binance, regardless of whether CZ returns.