Key Notes
- Hayes says the US president is strongly focused on the economy, not morality.
- Credit growth and liquidity matter more for Bitcoin than single geopolitical events, he argues.
- The analyst notes that oil prices and inflation impact both elections and the prices of risky assets.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, published his latest essay, arguing that the US takeover of Venezuelan oil isn’t moral news but rather focused on the country’s economy.
What matters for Bitcoin and markets, he argues, is how political leaders manage the economy, credit, and inflation
Hayes declined the moral and geopolitical narratives that have been dominating the media since the arrest of the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
The former BitMEX CEO added that US President Donald Trump is strongly focused on keeping the economy strong and inflation controlled, which are essential for future elections, hinting at the 2026 midterms and the 2028 run.
Related article: Bitcoin Shrugs Off Venezuela Shock as On-Chain Data Signals CalmAccording to Hayes, the average voter cares most about how wealthy or financially secure they feel when they cast their ballot. That feeling depends heavily on nominal GDP, credit availability, and the price of gasoline.
The Venezuelan Signal
Hayes believes that, for Trump and the Republicans, having access to Venezuelan oil reserves could help lower energy costs for US consumers.
According to his analysis, if the gas prices decline while the GDP rises, voters would naturally feel financially better. This could be a potentially bullish catalyst for risky assets like Bitcoin
BTC
$93 224
24h volatility:
0.8%
Market cap:
$1.86 T
Vol. 24h:
$52.20 B
.
Notably, Hayes has been investing heavily in crypto assets like Ethereum
ETH
$3 219
24h volatility:
1.7%
Market cap:
$388.46 B
Vol. 24h:
$25.68 B
, ETHENA (ENA), ETHFI (ETHFI), and PENDLE (PENDLE). Arkham data shows that the BitMEX co-founder’s altcoin holdings are currently worth over $75 million.
In Hayes’s view, markets don’t rise because of geopolitics but rather because of credit growth and liquidity.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have seen a significant rally since the arrest of Venezuela’s president, with on-chain data showing no signs of panic BTC rose by 0.8% in the past 24 hours to $93,300. ETH gained 1.85% and is trading at $3,220 at the time of writing.
The overall market sentiment is sitting in the neutral zone for the first time since late October. Bitcoin’s price reaction will be tied to macroeconomic forces rather than the moral dimension of geopolitical events, according to Hayes
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