$80,000 "on the brink of collapse"... Bitcoin, will it be shaken by technological and policy panic?

Bitcoin (BTC) price approaches a key support level of $80,000 (approximately 116.08 million KRW), intensifying market nervousness. As the issue of President Trump’s potential replacement of the Federal Reserve Chair becomes prominent, global investor sentiment further deteriorates. This macro uncertainty exerts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, coupled with technical bearish signals, increasing the likelihood of further declines.

Technical Perspective: If the $80,000 support collapses, an urgent zone will be exposed

Recently, Bitcoin broke below a flag pattern on the daily chart, signaling an acceleration of the downtrend. It has broken out of the previous consolidation range, shifting into an ongoing downward trajectory. The current price is trading near just below the psychological support level of $80,000, a key demand zone that previously triggered additional buying when prices surged.

If this support level is lost, liquidity-thin areas below will be exposed, and the possibility of a medium-term bearish reversal will increase. Especially amid rising uncertainty over whether Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be replaced, the market indicates that volatility could expand.

Short-term rebound possibility remains… Key resistance at $88,000

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows signs of exhaustion in selling pressure after a sharp decline, seeking a short-term rebound. The short-term resistance is around $88,000 (approximately 127.68 million KRW), an area identified as a “supply zone” where selling has historically concentrated.

From a technical standpoint, a rebound to this resistance level is a natural move. However, if the price fails to break through this zone and faces renewed pressure, selling dominance may further strengthen. Conversely, if the price can break through this area, it could be seen as an initial reversal signal within the downtrend.

On-chain Data: Long-term holders remain stable, short-term holders waver

On-chain data shows that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, while short-term holders exhibit signs of stress. Analyzing realized prices by holding period indicates that recent Bitcoin prices have fallen below the average purchase cost of investors holding for 12-18 months. This pattern is similar to historical bottoms when buying interest surged.

While it is difficult to definitively identify a bottom at this point, analysis suggests that even if Bitcoin prices decline further, it may evolve into a “reactive decline” accompanied by a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Conclusion: $80,000, a critical crossroads determining future direction

Bitcoin faces a major turning point with macro uncertainties and technical bearish structures overlapping. The future direction will likely depend on the defense of the $80,000 demand zone. Holding this support could lead to a temporary relief rebound; a collapse could trigger sharp downward pressure. This demand zone is not just a simple support line but a key watershed where macro issues and psychological turning points intersect.

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