Monetary Policy

The essay discusses a significant shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, with probability favoring rate hikes instead of cuts. This change is attributed to rising inflation fears linked to energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Additionally, while Bitcoin has held steady, it remains underperforming compared to other assets like gold and stocks.

The article analyzes the potential global economic impact of the upcoming conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly on the energy market and the debt market. It is expected that during Easter weekend, the U.S. may take action, such as going to war, which would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, and a significant contraction in the global bond market. The Federal Reserve, facing the triple pressures of inflation, a banking crisis, and war financing, may adopt a "financial repression" strategy to lower real interest rates. Ultimately, the risks in the bond market are considered a greater hidden danger.

BlockBeats news, on March 29, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April has decreased to 4.1% (which had briefly risen to 12.4% on March 23), while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.9%.

Recently, after a continuous net inflow into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF for seven trading days, a significant outflow occurred, with a net outflow of $163.5 million on the 18th and another outflow of $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating a simultaneous weakening of market funds and prices. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $70,000, highlighting that the fund flows from the ETF can no longer support its rebound, and the deteriorating macro environment is putting pressure on risk assets, leading to a noticeable contraction in investor preferences. The testing of the $70,000 level has become a barometer for short-term market sentiment.

The U.S.-Iran war is escalating, with U.S. forces at a base in Saudi Arabia being attacked by Iran, resulting in at least 15 injuries. The Pentagon is drafting operational plans for ground troops, focusing on Iran's nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz has become a diplomatic toll station, allowing only friendly countries to pass, and the crypto market is also under pressure due to the war.

Bitwise suggests Bitcoin has priced in tighter monetary policy impacts, while stocks remain vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Rising energy prices pressure inflation, affecting Fed rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, already adjusting to risk appetites, shows resilience compared to falling equities.

Today's crypto market revolves around three main topics: the cessation of a four-week inflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs, Morgan Stanley's low fee offering for its ETF, and ongoing discussions among U.S. lawmakers regarding a new crypto tax framework without a de minimis exemption for Bitcoin.

US lawmakers introduced the “Digital Asset PARITY Act,” proposing tax exemptions for small stablecoin transactions and clearer rules for crypto taxation. While supporters welcome the initiative, critics argue it inadequately addresses broader industry needs, particularly regarding Bitcoin.

Ukraine's drone strikes have exacerbated oil market instability during the Iran war, complicating Trump's efforts to stabilize prices. This disruption risks prolonged high oil prices, leading to inflation and potential Fed rate hikes, which could challenge cryptocurrency stability.

Recently, after experiencing a net inflow for seven consecutive trading days, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a significant outflow, with a net outflow of $163.5 million on the 18th and another outflow of $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating a simultaneous weakening of market capital and prices. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $70,000, highlighting that the fund flows of the ETF can no longer support its rebound, and the deteriorating macro environment is putting pressure on risk assets, causing a noticeable contraction in investor preference. The testing of the $70,000 threshold has become a barometer for short-term market sentiment.

Plume legal advisor B. Salman Banaei testified before Congress, urging the SEC to expedite the development of tokenization rules and criticizing the reliance on an "innovation exemption" mechanism. He emphasized the need for public consultation to promote permanent solutions that would attract large institutions to participate in the tokenization of real-world assets, reminding SEC leadership of the urgency to act.

Citigroup lowers its 12-month target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating that its medium-term outlook for the crypto market has turned cautious, mainly because progress on U.S. crypto-asset legislation has been slow. Its Bitcoin target is reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, and its Ethereum target is lowered to $3,175. Although there is still room for upside in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts means prices could trade within a range in the short term. Citigroup is even more cautious in its assessment of Ethereum, saying it is more heavily influenced by on-chain activity.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Financial Times report about his support for a accountability mechanism similar to that of the Bank of England, calling it "a complete fabrication." He emphasized that he had not proposed any related plans and expressed disdain for the Bank of England's communication mechanism. This incident reflects the sensitivity of the U.S. regarding the independence of its monetary policy, and it could impact the cryptocurrency market.

David Sacks has concluded his 130-day tenure as the White House's cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence affairs chief and will transition to co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, continuing to influence U.S. technology policy. He will focus on advancing a unified regulatory framework for artificial intelligence and engage in policy research across several key areas. This change may affect the future coordination of cryptocurrency and AI regulation.

The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency in the U.S. is changing, as David Sacks concludes his term in the Trump administration and transitions to co-chair of the Technology Advisory Council, leading to concerns about the continuity of digital asset policy. The outlook for the CLARITY Act has become uncertain, with the market focusing on future legislative developments and the emergence of new policy leaders.

Gate News reports that on March 27, the Bank of Japan stated that, according to the latest data, Japan's estimated natural interest rate (the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy) is between -0.9% and +0.5%. The Bank of Japan pointed out that, given the uncertainty in estimating the natural rate, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the degree of monetary easing, while carefully examining the trends in economic activity, prices, and financial developments.

Global market performance looks stable on the surface, but internal imbalances remain. Geopolitical risks still exist. Countries are withdrawing liquidity and stabilizing their domestic currencies through different measures; the inflation logic has shifted somewhat, and a strengthening U.S. dollar reflects liquidity being withdrawn. In the crypto market, BTC is consolidating within a range-bound, choppy zone, with price volatility kept in check. In the short term, it’s necessary to watch for changes in the macro environment to find a trend breakout.

Recently, after experiencing a net inflow for seven consecutive trading days, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a significant outflow, with a net outflow of $163.5 million on the 18th and an additional outflow of $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating a simultaneous weakening of market funds and prices. The price of Bitcoin briefly dropped below $70,000, highlighting that the fund flows into the ETF can no longer support its rebound, and the deteriorating macro environment is putting pressure on risk assets, leading to a noticeable contraction in investor preferences. The testing of the $70,000 threshold has become a barometer for short-term market sentiment.

Zhou Xiaochuan emphasized at the Boao Forum for Asia that a good payment system needs to adapt to various technologies and regulations, especially in the areas of anti-money laundering and anti-fraud. He pointed out that while digital currencies have applications, they also bring risks of online fraud, calling for cautious treatment of stablecoins and crypto technology to enhance compliance.

Zhou Xiaochuan emphasized at the Boao Forum that the key to payment systems lies in adaptability, rather than a single technology. He pointed out that while digital currencies are used by central banks, they also contribute to online fraud, and the ability to combat fraud urgently needs improvement. He mentioned that stablecoins bypass compliance issues and called for in-depth consideration rather than blindly following trends.