The Bitcoin balance on the exchange has reached the lowest level in the past six years, with some skeptical views.

## Supply has significantly decreased

Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of the major U.S. investment firm Fidelity, reported on the 24th that the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) on exchanges has significantly decreased, reaching its lowest level since November 2018.

We have seen #bitcoin supply on exchanges dropping due to public company purchases—something we anticipate accelerating in the near future. Here are some of the current trends unfolding: ⬇️ 🧵

— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) April 24, 2025

Fidelity reported the following four points:

• The amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges is at its lowest level in the past 6 years Currently, the amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges is approximately 2.6 million BTC, which is the lowest level since November 2018.
• 425,000 BTC transferred More than 425,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges since November 2024.
• A publicly traded company purchased 350,000 BTC After the US presidential election, publicly traded companies purchased approximately 350,000 BTC.
• Purchase 30,000 BTC every month In 2025, publicly traded companies purchased more than 30,000 BTC each month.

Fidelity expects this trend to accelerate in the near future.

Background of Supply Reduction

There are several factors behind the decrease in the supply of Bitcoin, but generally, it can be attributed to the Bitcoin halving that occurred in April last year, which halved the amount of Bitcoin newly issued through mining.

Additionally, President Trump, who has made a promise to “make the U.S. the capital of cryptocurrency” and is taking a stance to promote cryptocurrencies, signed an executive order in March establishing a “strategic Bitcoin reserve.” This has become a tailwind to enhance the trust of companies and investors in Bitcoin.

However, according to Fidelity, the most direct impact on the supply of Bitcoin has been the successive large purchases by companies.

The leading example is the continuous Bitcoin purchasing strategy by the publicly listed company, Strategy. Since November, the company has acquired 285,980 BTC, which accounts for 81% of the approximately 350,000 BTC purchased by publicly listed companies.

The company announced on April 14 that it had purchased an additional 3,459 BTC. Furthermore, on the 21st, it purchased an additional 6,556 BTC, bringing the total holdings of Strategy Company to 538,200 BTC.

Japanese company Metaplanet announced on the 24th that it has added an additional 145 BTC to its holdings. The total number of holdings has reached 5,000 BTC. The company has set a goal to achieve a holding of 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025.

On the 23rd, the Hong Kong investment company HK Asia Holdings announced a fundraising plan of approximately $8.35 million (about 1.2 billion yen). It is believed that this will be used for additional purchases of Bitcoin. The company has implemented the “MicroStrategy 2.0” plan, which incorporates Bitcoin as a financial asset. They purchased their first 1 BTC in February, after which their stock price surged by 93%. Since then, they have made three additional purchases of Bitcoin and currently hold 28.88 BTC.

The scarcity of Bitcoin

The significant reduction in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges due to large purchases by publicly traded companies is likely to further increase Bitcoin’s scarcity, which raises the possibility of a price increase in the market.

Fidelity’s 2025 Cryptocurrency Outlook report projects the Bitcoin price forecast to range from $125,000 (approximately ¥17,900,000) to $200,000 (approximately ¥28,600,000). U.S. hedge fund ARK Investment, in its latest report, predicted that Bitcoin could reach between $300,000 (bear case: approximately ¥42,900,000) and $1,500,000 (bull case: ¥214,450,000) by 2030.

Skeptical view

However, Jameson Lopp, co-founder of the cryptocurrency custody solution company Casa, warns not to take the exchange’s Bitcoin supply indicators at face value. This is because there are limitations to the accuracy of such data, and it may be corrected later.

According to the same person, the Bitcoin balance announced by Glassnode on January 2, 2025, was a 30% upward revision from what was announced on January 1, 2024. Therefore, they pointed out that about 8% falls within the margin of error and recommended cautious investment decisions.