Recently, there has been an abnormal data point, which is that the queue for staking Ethereum has suddenly surged to 2.1 million coins, worth over 9 billion USD. Such a large volume of unlocking is likely an institutional behavior, and there is currently no on-chain information showing which entity it belongs to. Due to the recent Ethereum market being continuously affected by this data, it is estimated that the plan for the Ethereum market to restart this week or even next week is likely to be dashed. Market makers can continue to buy, but they will definitely hope to wait until this wave of unlocking is over, as if they intend to sell, the price will fall significantly.

Data is the most objective, so seeing this anomaly honestly made my heart tighten. I think it will affect the determination of others waiting to exit their stake, especially those who had their unlockings happen in the past week. Going back to the fundamental logic of this round of rise, it's that American companies are mimicking MicroStrategy's purchase of Ethereum. Recently, the rate at which several companies are buying Ethereum has also slowed down. Of course, we see that the amount of Ethereum waiting to be staked is still decent, but this data can only represent the past. If the buying pressure is weak in the coming weeks, Ethereum's price will come under pressure.
On the other hand, the recent altcoin market has started to show some improvement. However, to be honest, I am not good at seizing opportunities in the altcoin market. At most, I can only allocate 10-20% of my position in a bear market. Furthermore, based on my previous allocation, the overall increase has not outperformed Ethereum, and some have even dropped below half their value. In my view, the biggest help from the altcoin market is that it drives up transaction fees, and it can also serve as a judgment indicator for our overall market. Objectively speaking, the more crazy the altcoin market is, the fuller the progress bar of the bull market.
In terms of operations, I want to clarify one point first, which is to be bearish but not short. However, considering the overall market progress, starting from this time point, for more than a year to come, do not build large-scale long positions anymore. In other words, I believe this round of the market has completely entered the accumulation cycle. As for when to reduce positions and how to do it, there is no absolute standard. I am used to doing it in batches. For example, recently, the altcoin market has shown signs of recovery, so I will gradually sell the altcoins I hold. The key point is Ethereum; I will continue to observe it and plan to reduce some positions soon, aiming to bring the overall position down to 50%, as the number of people queuing to exit recently is quite large, so I need to be a bit cautious.