The market has been a bit explosive these past couple of days. Let's start with some shocking news—Musk has suddenly returned to the White House.

On Tuesday night, the Saudi Crown Prince hosted a top-level dinner, attended by big names like Cook, Huang Renxun, and Ronaldo. The most eye-catching moment was when Musk and Trump appeared together. It’s worth noting that just half a year ago, the two were in a heated dispute over government budget cuts, with Musk even threatening to establish a third political party. Now, suddenly returning, it is said that the Tesla board has given the green light: as long as the trillion-dollar compensation target is met, they can engage in political activities freely. The calculations behind this are worth pondering.
What's worse is that the Federal Reserve is starting to split internally. Vice Chairman Jefferson hinted at "slowly lowering interest rates", but several officials have come out warning that inflation is not under control at all. Now, the government shutdown has led to a halt in economic data, and the Federal Reserve is basically making decisions based on guesses. If tonight's meeting minutes lean towards a hawkish tone, the dollar could take off directly, which wouldn't be good news for the cryptocurrency market.
Then comes tonight's main event - Nvidia's earnings report. Its forward P/E ratio has soared to 22.4 times, far exceeding the historical average. If the earnings guidance falls short of expectations, or if there are issues with the Blackwell chip supply, the entire tech sector may collapse collectively. On the other hand, if it exceeds expectations, cryptocurrencies related to AI concepts like ETH and SOL could skyrocket.
Tomorrow there is another key data: the delayed release of September's non-farm payroll. The market expects only 50,000 new jobs. If it turns out to be this bad, the expectations for a rate cut in December will be reignited, and it will be difficult for the dollar to rise.
The market is now divided into two camps: one believes that Nvidia will definitely exceed expectations and is buying up AI-related coins; the other is worried about a sudden hawkish attack from the Federal Reserve and is cautious of a market crash.
To be honest, during times when multiple bearish and bullish factors are intertwined, it's best not to heavily bet on a direction. What do you think?