Is 81,000 the bottom?

If I were to guess: right now it looks more like the first round of acceleration in the downtrend, not the ultimate panic bottom.
The main players can easily use the 80,000–82,000 range for consolidation, pull it up to 85,000–88,000 to trigger short squeezes and lure in longs,
then decide whether to smash it down further to 76,000–78,000,
or start a larger-scale consolidation.
To determine a reversal, at least the following conditions need to be met:
1. 4H candles stop making new lows;
2. A long lower wick with heavy volume appears at the lows, and the buying/selling difference stops making new lows;
3. Open interest rises but price stops falling (indicating significant position rotation).
None of these have happened yet, so the trend is still bearish, and any rebound is a better shorting opportunity.
Tonight’s trading plan is to short in batches between 84,200–85,200! Stop loss at 85.8K, then look for the 82K area. If 81K breaks, look for new lows.
If 81K is the bottom and a reversal is starting, this short on the rebound can test whether a new 4H low forms.
If I’m wrong, I’ll switch direction!
$BTC