BTC's caught in a bear cycle, yet here's the kicker — even at these beaten-down levels, it's trading nearly 40% above what fundamentals suggest it should be worth.

Think about that for a second. We're already deep in red territory, sentiment's crushed, and the asset is still overheated by traditional metrics. Makes you wonder what a real capitulation event would look like if we ever hit fair value.

Not saying this to spread FUD, just calling it like the numbers show. The disconnect between price action and underlying value remains massive, which historically doesn't end well until the gap closes — either through time, further drawdowns, or some explosive fundamental shift that nobody sees coming.