Daily Analysis #BTC

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation Currently, the market is driven by macroeconomic favorable factors, while the technical aspect is under pressure, but overall it remains weak. The short-term trend is dominated by macro sentiment, but the technical aspect has not formed a solid bottom structure, so attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the market.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics Macroeconomic Environment (Market "Tailwind"): The biggest support comes from the macro level. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, with a probability exceeding 80%. This improves the overall environment for risk assets and is the main driving force behind the rebound of Bitcoin. Market Structure (Deep "Context"): According to Wintermute's analysis, the leverage level of the entire cryptocurrency market has significantly decreased, with the total open interest of perpetual contracts dropping from about $230 billion at the beginning of October to $135 billion. At the same time, the funding rate has turned negative. This means that excessive leverage risk has been released, and market activities are returning more to spot trading, laying the foundation for a healthier recovery. Institutional Movements (Where "Smart Money" Goes): Despite market volatility, institutions are still continuously accumulating. For example, BlackRock recently acquired 953 BTC (valued at about $83.43 million) through a transaction. This indicates that the long-term optimistic logic has not changed.
3️⃣ Exercise caution when pursuing long positions within the day. Focus on the sustainability of rebounds. At the same time, pay attention to breakthroughs at key positions. The area around 92000-93000 is a critical resistance level. If the price strongly approaches this area, observe the strength of the candlestick. If there are obvious signals of stagnation such as a noticeable upper shadow, bearish engulfing, or declining volume, consider entering a short position. This remains a relatively stable short entry point. If the resistance zone is broken, we need to pay attention to the suppression situation of the 4-hour chart. We can then consider continuing to short, provided that weak conditions appear.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Risk of Macro Expectations Falling Short: The current rebound is based on expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. If the U.S. PCE inflation data released tonight exceeds expectations, or if the Federal Reserve subsequently issues "hawkish" signals, it may instantly reverse market sentiment. Technical Adjustment Risk: As the market has just recovered from a decline, investor sentiment is still not solid. If the price struggles to break through key resistance levels, it may trigger short-term profit-taking, leading to a price drop to test support again.