Daily Analysis #ETH

1️⃣ Structural analysis of ETH's short-term structure shows a synchronized repair, but its independence is limited. Its trend primarily depends on BTC's movements. Currently, Ethereum has quickly surged and then started to consolidate laterally. It has not experienced the same slow upward movement as Bitcoin, so we need to be cautious of a rapid market pullback.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Derivatives Market ("Sentiment" Thermometer): The total open positions of ETH contracts across the network increased by 5.11% in 24 hours, reaching a total of $36.935 billion. This is a noteworthy signal at the beginning of the market rebound, which may indicate that capital is re-entering the market with expectations of subsequent volatility. Market Structure (Deep "Context"): Like BTC, ETH also benefits from the overall decrease in market leverage and the normalization of funding rates. This provides a healthier foundation for future increases. Sectors and Hotspots: Internal market capital is looking for opportunities. Although the overall market performance is weak, some narrow narratives (such as proxy protocols, privacy, DePIN) are still driving short-term outperformance of individual tokens. This indicates that the intrinsic activity within the market has not completely disappeared.
3️⃣ The intraday trading idea has currently reached the expected resistance zone. We patiently wait for weakness to appear before considering entering short positions. Although the current trend shows bullish movement on the hourly chart, the overall trend is still leaning towards a bearish run. In such a trend, it is essentially what we have been discussing: a sweeping market and a fluctuating adjustment market. In this type of trend, it is very easy to see large bearish and bullish candles. In the upcoming market, we will continue to maintain a bearish outlook.
4️⃣ Risk Warning High Volatility Risk: The intraday price fluctuation of ETH is usually greater than that of BTC. In the current market environment, this means that any operation may face significant price volatility, and it is essential to manage risk through light positions and stop-loss orders. Market Correlation Risk: The movement of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If BTC turns down due to unfavorable macro data, it is difficult for ETH to remain unaffected. Event Risk: Attention should be paid to the US PCE inflation data to be released tonight, as its results may significantly impact ETH indirectly by influencing macro sentiment and BTC movement.