Recently, I was reviewing the prediction records of a well-known analyst in the industry and discovered some interesting phenomena.

In the past six months, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua's judgment on ETH has shown a clear "near accurate, far virtual" characteristic—short-term timing has been quite precise, while the long-term vision tests patience.

First, let's talk about a few impressive operations. He decisively built his position when ETH dropped to $1800 and exited completely around $4500, making a solid profit from this main uptrend. The one on August 26 was even more classic: when the market retraced to the $4100-$4300 range, he directly posted that it was the "best entry point," and the subsequent rebound confirmed this judgment.

As the market continued to weaken in November, he repeatedly reminded to buy the dip in the spot market at the position of 3000-3300 USD, and especially emphasized not to touch contracts. This risk control approach is quite practical.

But when it comes to long-term goals, it gets a bit grand - in August, a ten-year target of $14,000 was called out, and in November, the target for this bull market was set at $7,000. These expectations are based on macro logic such as interest rate cuts, institutional funds, and financial infrastructure narratives. The problem is that ETH is still hovering around $2,900, which is quite a distance from these target prices.

His core strategy is actually just one: only trade spot and stay away from contracts. This is quite a practical suggestion for retail investors. In terms of the analytical framework, he will integrate market sentiment, position data, and the macro environment. For example, recently he pointed out that there is a serious accumulation of short positions in the market, which may trigger a short squeeze.

Ultimately, short-term judgments do have reference value, but any predictions are just one person's opinion. Whether long-term goals can be fulfilled depends on whether those underlying assumptions come true. Independent thinking is always more important than blindly following others.

Do you think this position of Ethereum is an opportunity or a trap? The market always moves forward amidst divergences.