The latest Fed beige book contains several noteworthy signals that may be related to the upcoming market trends.

The consumption data reveals a clear stratification phenomenon—high-income groups spend freely, while middle and low-income groups are starting to tighten their belts. Behind this phenomenon is actually a logic: ordinary people's money is locked up in daily expenses, but the idle funds in the hands of the wealthy always need a place to go. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, this capital is likely to flow into safe-haven assets. Reflecting on last year's Silicon Valley Bank incident, Bitcoin surged 30% in a week, and this is the reason.

Looking at the combination of employment and price data: the job market is cooling down, but inflation hasn't fully come down yet. This awkward situation will leave policymakers in a dilemma. If they decide to cut interest rates to boost the economy, after the market liquidity is loosened, digital assets tend to react first. Everyone should still remember the operation in March 2020, after the interest rate cut, Bitcoin tripled in six months.

There's another easily overlooked point: due to the government shutdown, official economic data is delayed, and now this private research report has become the focal point for the market. The information vacuum is most prone to mishaps; last October, an unverified piece of news caused Bitcoin to fluctuate by 5% in an instant. At this stage, we need to be particularly vigilant about breaking news.

Personal opinion: Don't rush to chase highs or panic sell in the short term; it’s more practical to closely monitor policy trends. If there is indeed a rate cut in December, consider entering the market in batches with $BTC and $ETH ; if the status quo is maintained, then hold onto your ammunition and wait for a correction opportunity. Ultimately, how much can be earned in a bull market largely depends on how much was acquired at the bottom of the bear market.

Where do you think the next policy will head?