Gold's Record Peak Might Be Bitcoin's Starting Gun

Gold just hit an all-time high of $4,392/oz in early 2025, but here’s the plot twist: it might signal the beginning of the end for the precious metals rally.

Crypto analyst Mario Nawfal is spotting something interesting in the market microstructure. After gold surged over 60% through late 2024 and early 2025 (driven by U.S.-China trade tensions and central bank accumulation), institutional players started dumping it hard. When Trump made softer comments on trade, spot gold tanked 2% in a single session, evaporating nearly $1 trillion in value.

The Capital Rotation Story

Nawfal’s thesis: institutions didn’t hodl through the peak—they took profits and are now quietly rotating that liquidity into Bitcoin. The technical setup looks eerily similar to August 2020, when gold peaked and Bitcoin subsequently exploded from $10,000 to $60,000 within months.

The RSI readings support this narrative:

• Gold’s RSI is above 85 (overbought, potential reversal)
• Bitcoin’s RSI sits around 32 (oversold, ready to rip)

Price Targets on the Table

Both Nawfal and analyst Michael van de Poppe are painting aggressive scenarios. Van de Poppe expects BTC could hit $150,000–$180,000 before 2025 closes, with a moonshot to $1 million possible within 1–2 years. The trigger? Once gold’s rally fully reverses, the freed-up capital needs a home. Historically, Bitcoin tends to lag gold cycles but ultimately outperforms when the rotation completes.

The FOMC meeting on October 29, 2025 could be the inflection point that accelerates the shift. Watch gold’s daily close—if it keeps falling, expect BTC to finally wake up from its recent chop.