The European Central Bank is holding a meeting tonight. Isn't the prediction from ING a bit dull? The market hardly reacted, indicating that everyone is not expecting any major moves.

The current deposit interest rate is 2%. The European Central Bank itself says our position is good, implying that there won't be major changes in the short term. However, interestingly, the market is currently pricing a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut within the next 12 months, with some analysts believing this expectation is too conservative.

If the European Central Bank really decides to loosen the monetary policy, it is unlikely to just be a simple one-time interest rate cut. In other words, this meeting may be a "covert observation" process— the Central Bank is waiting for inflation data, and the market is waiting for hints from the Central Bank.