Why do many people miss the main rise even though they hold for a long time? Today, let's break it down and explain this matter thoroughly.

**Can retail investors really "hold on"?**

Stop talking about faith. Most people can hold on for a long time, and the essential reason is just one - the increase is not enough to move you. When does the real test come? When these few things hit at the same time: the coin price moves sideways for several months without much change, it declines a little every day, there are voices everywhere singing its demise, several big influencers start to shout the opposite, and you start to feel emo in the middle of the night...

At this point, a magical phenomenon occurs: the longer you hold it, the more you feel that this coin is trash. When it drops another 3% one day, your mindset completely collapses, and you cut your losses and leave. The next day? It directly rises by 20%.

This is why those altcoins that have surged by dozens of times receive the most criticism. It's not hatred, but a mix of love and hate. The large fluctuations create opportunities, and that is the biggest charm of this market.

**Why do the main forces always do a "final wash" before takeoff?**

What are they most afraid of? They are afraid of a bunch of retail investors fully invested and flying together. Therefore, before the main rise, the main forces must complete three things:

First, shake out the early investors—the old chives. This group has the most stable chips and the lowest cost. If they are not shaken out, it will be difficult to pull up later.
Second, blow up all the long positions of the contracts - if the leverage is not cleared, the price simply won't rise.
Third, suppress the market sentiment to the freezing point of "whoever dares to go all in is a fool."

Once these three steps are completed, the main rise will truly begin. This is not a coincidence; this is the standard process of operation.

**Why do I always sell the day before a breakthrough, even though I've held it for a long time?**

The longer the time stretches, the more the expectations are hit hard. In the end, the mindset becomes: "Forget it, as long as I don't lose, I'll just break even and leave."

For example: if you have slowly climbed back from a 20% loss to a 3% loss, you might think, "It's okay, it's okay, let's preserve the principal first." So you set a sell order. As a result, the next day, a big bullish candle shoots up.

This is the classic script of dying before dawn.

**The rhythm is off, no matter how long it takes, it's futile**

The rhythm of the main force is as follows: building positions → sideways consolidation → further sideways shakeout → launching the main rise.

The rhythm of retail investors is as follows: buy → start to doubt during consolidation → become anxious during continued consolidation → fear sets in after a small drop → immediately run away once they break even.

You see, the market has gone through a complete cycle, and retail investors' emotions have experienced three life-and-death moments. Who is faster? Retail investors' emotions. Who is slower? The rhythm of the main rise.

Retail investors can't wait for the main rise, but the main rise can wait for retail investors.

**Understanding logic is more important than reading K-lines**

Those who can truly remain steady do not look at how much it has risen today or whether it will fall tomorrow, but focus on "behavioral logic"—what does the on-chain data indicate? Where is the capital flowing? Are ETFs coming in or out? How is the options structure laid out? In which range is the main position?

What to watch for: who is quietly accumulating shares, who is frantically supplying, who is being washed out, who is leveraging, and who is emotionally panicking.

These signals are more real than any candlestick.