The most frequently asked question in the past two weeks: Bitcoin supply is decreasing, and demand hasn't collapsed; why can't the price go above $100,000?

Many people panic sell when they see the K-line drop, but after looking at three weeks of funding data, I have to say - this time it's really not the retail investors who are panicking.

First, let’s clarify one thing: in the short term, price movements are mainly influenced by liquidity, with the fundamentals playing a supporting role. For an asset like Bitcoin, without a continuous influx of funds, no matter how attractive the supply and demand curve is, it cannot support the market. The current issue is that the faucet of funds has been turned off.

Here's a key number: The U.S. government recently has over $150 billion in cash stuck in the Treasury due to a budget impasse. This money was supposed to flow out through government spending—subsidies, project funds, contract payments—ultimately some of it would flow into the cryptocurrency market through institutions and individuals. But now all this money is stuck in the account and can't go out, which effectively drains a significant portion of the market's liquidity.

Some people may find it strange: what does the money from the Ministry of Finance have to do with the coin price?

Here is a hardcore logic: the cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to the liquidity of the US dollar. More than 95% of Bitcoin transactions globally are completed through USDT, USDC, and other dollar stablecoins, and the issuance scale of stablecoins is directly affected by