(Bitcoin once touched 93000 before retreating)

Dominant capital sentiment: extremely sensitive, huge Gamma exposure, a single word from Powell tomorrow could trigger violent fluctuations of ±8-10%. Scenario 1: Super dovish (Powell significantly shifts to dovish, probability 30%) — the main upward wave directly starts triggering conditions: Powell mentions super dovish phrases like "labor market weakening significantly", "inflation is basically back to 2%", "we have room to ease further", and the market immediately prices in the number of rate cuts in 2025 from the current 3 times to 5-6 times. Trend path: Direct violent surge within 30 minutes after tomorrow's speech, breaking through resistance at 93300-98000-102000.
In the first two weeks of December, it surged to 98000-102000 (this is currently the biggest pain point for open contracts).
Directly hit 110,000-120,000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension) from the end of December to the beginning of January.
Q1 2025's wild target is 138,000-142,000 (many institutions have annual targets around here)

Shanzhai coins will take off directly, the SOL/ETH ratio will soar, and the alt/BTC seasonal index will return to the 2021 path. Scenario 2: Mild dovish/neutrally bullish (most likely, probability 45-50%) — Trigger conditions for the main upward wave: Powell did not use hawkish language, but also did not provide a super dovish surprise, maintaining "data dependent", with a probability of rate cuts in December remaining above 80%. Trend path: Tomorrow will first rally to 94500-98500, then consolidate for 3-5 days.
Slowly push to 105,000-107,000 before mid-December.
Break through 110,000 (current maximum resistance) before and after Christmas.
Target 116,000-122,000 for January-February 2025
This path is the most comfortable, with funds continuously increasing their positions, and the daily inflow of spot ETFs maintaining between 3-5 billion USD.

Scenario 3: True Neutral (Sideways Consolidation, Probability 15-20%) Trigger Conditions: Powell's speech is ambiguous, neither indicating a significant deterioration in employment nor closing the door on interest rate cuts, with market expectations remaining largely unchanged. Trend Path: Short-term high-level consolidation in the 90,000-98,000 range for 2-3 weeks.
If it does not break the previous high of 101,400, it also does not effectively fall below 85,000.
Altcoins are consolidating or slightly retracing by 10-20%.
Wait until the FOMC meeting on December 18 to choose a direction.
In this situation, it is the most frustrating, but as long as there are no hawkish surprises, it is highly likely to break upwards in the end.

Scenario 4: Hawkish Surprise (Worst Case, currently I only give it an 8-10% probability) - Deep adjustment or even bear market initiation trigger conditions: Powell emphasizes "inflation remains elevated", "tariff will be inflationary", "we may need to hold rates higher for longer", and the probability of a rate cut in December drops directly below 30%. Market path (will be very brutal): A flash crash within 30 minutes after tomorrow's speech, first dropping to 84,000-85,000.
Break 837000 (large long stop-loss position) within 24 hours
Worst path: First support: 84500
Second support: 81,000-83,000 (super pain point, starting point of the entire bull market in 2024)
If this area is lost (probability < 25%), it will directly open a bear market, targeting the range of 66,000-72,000 (the peak area in March-April 2024)

Altcoins will bleed heavily, with widespread halving or even knee-capping (-50% to -70%) being no joke. I still remain bullish on the current situation.
Set the stop-loss at 86000 (if it closes below this tomorrow, liquidate everything)
Target level: short term 98k, medium term 102k, extreme view 111k
Leave 15% specifically to wait for the speech tomorrow. If scenario 4 appears, aggressively buy the dip in the 78.5k-80k range.

In summary:
As long as Powell is not particularly hawkish tomorrow (90% probability), this bull market will continue, and may even directly enter the craziest stage; if he truly turns hawkish, then it will indeed be a horror movie in December, seeing below 80,000. The only thing to do now is to wait for Powell to speak tomorrow night at 10:00 PM (Beijing time), just be patient and wait, and remain steady amidst all changes.