The main predictions for Bitcoin on Polymarket: analysis of four predictive markets

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Find out what the main predictions for Bitcoin on Polymarket are Original Link: While traditional research institutes showed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump technically tied, another thermometer indicated a comfortable victory for the Republican. When the Electoral College confirmed Trump's return to the most powerful position on the planet, the Polymarket phenomenon was consolidated.

The betting platform — often described as a predictive market — has gained special relevance in the crypto sector, as it uses the stablecoin USDC for deposits and withdrawals. For many users, it is the first hands-on experience with cryptocurrencies.

With this status of “modern oracle”, Polymarket has begun to be monitored by people and companies interested in gauging the pulse of different segments. And with Bitcoin, it couldn't be any different: there are dozens of open markets, with high liquidity, addressing everything from price predictions to technical aspects of the network.

What price will Bitcoin reach by 2025?

With a liquidity of approximately $68 million, this is currently the most robust market involving Bitcoin within Polymarket — and serves as a snapshot of collective sentiment about the coming year.

The bet is divided into price ranges that go from US$ 20 thousand to US$ 1 million, each with its respective “implied probability,” expressed through the price of the “Yes” contracts. The more expensive the “Yes,” the greater the chance attributed by the bettors.

The range considered most likely by the market, at this moment, is that of $100,000, which concentrates an implied probability of 51%. Next, the projections of $80,000 (36%) and $110,000 (19%) appear, both seen as plausible scenarios by bettors. Lower prices, such as $70,000 (13%), $50,000 (3%), and $20,000 (1%), are treated as unlikely. On the other end, highly optimistic values — $200,000 (1%), $250,000 (<1%), and even $1 million (<1%) — practically find no buyers, reflecting skepticism regarding such a sharp surge still in 2025.

• US$ 1,000,000 — <1% chance: The “Yes” contract costs $0.004, paying US$ 1 in case of a win — a potential return of about 24,900%.
• US$ 250,000 — <1% chance: The “Yes” goes for 0.5 cents, with a return of US$ 1, equivalent to a potential gain of 19,900%.
• US$ 200,000 — <1% chance: The “Yes” also costs 0.5 cent , paying US$ 1 in case of a correct guess — potential return of 19,900%.
• US$ 170,000 — 1% chance: The “Yes” is traded at 0.9 cent, which generates a potential return of approximately 11,011%.
• US$ 150,000 — 2% chance: The “Yes” contract costs 1.7 cents, paying US$ 1 if Bitcoin reaches the value — potential return of approx. 5,782%.
• US$ 140,000 — 2% chance: The “Yes” pays 2.5 cents, offering a potential return of around 3,900%.
• US$ 130,000 — 3% chance: The “Yes” contract is traded for 3.1 cents, equivalent to a potential return of 3,122%.
• US$ 120,000 — 6% chance: The “Yes” costs 7 cents, paying US$ 1, which represents a potential return of approximately 1,328%.
• US$ 110,000 — 20% chance: The “Yes” contract costs 21 cents, with a potential return of approx. 376%.
• US$ 100,000 — 48% chance: The “Yes” goes for 48 cents, paying US$ 1 — return of 108%.
• US$ 80,000 — 33% chance: The contract “Yes” costs 33.4 cents, generating a potential return of approx. 199%.
• US$ 70,000 — 11% chance: The “Yes” costs 12 cents, offering a potential return of around 733%.
• US$ 50,000 — 2% chance: The “Yes” is traded at 2.2 cents, with a potential return of 4,445%.
• US$ 20,000 — 1% chance: The contract “Yes” is priced at 0.6 cent, paying US$ 1 — potential return close to 16,566%.

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

Polymarket also maintains a market with a liquidity of $13 million dedicated to one of the most sensitive topics in the crypto universe: the possibility of Satoshi Nakamoto moving part of his Bitcoins in 2025. The reading of the numbers shows a clear and highly skeptical consensus.

Currently, the “Yes” contract is trading close to 1%, indicating that bettors assign a minimal probability that any address identified as belonging to Satoshi will register movement by December 31, 2025. Meanwhile, the “No” contract is trading above 99%, reflecting a dominant conviction that nothing will be moved.

If the “Yes” bettors win, they will receive $71 for every dollar wagered. Those who enter now, bet on “No” and come out victorious, will receive $0.01 for every dollar wagered.

This market will be resolved as 'Yes' if any wallet identified as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto in Arkham's Intel Explorer registers an 'Outflow' transaction (output) or 'Swaps' before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, the market will be resolved as 'No.'

Will the Bitcoin network replace the SHA-256 cryptography?

A highly technical question — but nonetheless appearing as a betting market on Polymarket — is the possibility of Bitcoin replacing the SHA-256 cryptographic system. SHA-256 is the hashing function used by Bitcoin since the genesis block, and it serves as the basis of its security: it is what transforms any set of data (such as the transactions of a block) into a fixed sequence of 256 bits.

This process is deterministic and practically impossible to reverse, which prevents anyone from altering information already recorded on the blockchain without redoing all the associated computational work. Furthermore, SHA-256 is central to the mining mechanism, as miners need to generate, through trial and error, a hash that meets the difficulty criteria set by the network.

Some advocates of the idea of replacing SHA-256 argue that while current technology poses no real risk, future advancements in quantum computing could weaken the hashing functions and cryptographic algorithms used by Bitcoin. The concern is that sufficiently powerful quantum machines could drastically reduce the cost of finding collisions or executing attacks that are currently considered unfeasible. This threat is still speculative and distant, but it is enough to fuel discussions — and bets — about the eventual need to update the network's cryptographic system in the future.

This bet has low liquidity compared to others on the platform: US$ 21 thousand. The 'Yes' contract, which costs 3 cents, pays US$ 1 in case of a correct guess, which is a potential return of more than 3,000%.

When will Bitcoin reach US$ 150,000?

Another market of great interest within Polymarket tries to predict when Bitcoin will finally hit the mark of $150,000. With over $2.1 million in liquidity, this bet serves as a direct reading of the collective sentiment about the speed of the next bull cycle.

The current numbers indicate that:

• December 31, 2025 — 2% chance: The “Yes” contract costs 1.9 cents, and pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by that date — equivalent to a potential return of approx. 5,160% for those who get it right.
• March 31, 2026 — 13% chance: The “Yes” contract is trading at 14 cents, paying $1 if the target is reached by the end of March 2026. This represents a potential return of about 614%.
• June 30, 2026 — 23% chance: The “Yes” contract costs 25 cents, with a maximum return of $1 in case of a correct prediction — a potential gain of 300%.
• December 31, 2026 — 36% chance: The “Yes” contract goes for 37 cents, paying $1 if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of 2026. The potential return here is approximately 170%.