The Fed's December interest rate meeting is likely to be the annual spectacle - Powell may have to compromise and lower interest rates this time, otherwise he really won't be able to maintain his position.

Barclays' recent report has directly cooled the market: a rate cut in December is basically a done deal, and there may be another one in January next year. But the problem is, the Fed is likely to be divided internally this time.

First, the numbers: The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has soared to 87.8%, and Powell is expected to lead the majority in voting in favor. However, the internal lines have already been drawn—Waller and Williams are in favor of the rate cut, while hawks like Schmidt and Musalem are fighting to the end, and even more absurdly, Milan may think the cut isn't aggressive enough. This is the largest disagreement in three years.

After the meeting, Powell will likely play it cool: he will superficially say a few hawkish words, but actually hint "January pause on rate cuts, unless the employment data blows up."

What does this mean for the market? In the short term, a rate cut may stimulate a surge in risk assets, but don't get too excited too soon—"once cut, then stop" scenarios will directly discount liquidity expectations. Additionally, with such significant internal divisions, the future policy path will only become more ambiguous, and volatility will inevitably intensify.

In simple terms, the market has already priced in a rate cut in December, and the real point of contention is "when will the second rate cut come?" If the employment data in the first quarter holds up, liquidity may be far below expectations. Wall Street has already begun to be cautious: this is not the starting point of an easing cycle, but more like a tentative operation. The more hype there is now, the greater the likelihood of disappointment in January next year.