# Natural Gas Slumps as US Output Hits Record High

Dec Nymex natural gas dropped 0.68% on Monday, pressured by two headwinds: mixed weather forecasts and surging production.

**Production boom weighs heavy**: Lower-48 nat-gas output climbed to a record 112.2 bcf/day (+8.3% y/y), according to BNEF data. The EIA already bumped up 2025 production forecasts by 1% to 107.67 bcf/day last month, and active drilling rigs just hit a 2-year high.

**Weather's mixed signals**: Forecasters predict colder conditions across eastern US (Nov 29-Dec 3) that could boost heating demand, but warmer weather expected in the Southeast and West offsets this tailwind.

**Some bright spots**: US electricity output jumped 5.33% y/y in the week ending Nov 15. Weekly nat-gas inventory drew 14 bcf (beating consensus of 12 bcf), though storage remains adequate at 3.8% above 5-year average.

**The reality**: Record production + mixed demand = downside pressure. Europe's gas storage at 81% signals global supply isn't as tight as it was.