Eli Lilly Breaks Through a $1 Trillion Market Capitalization: The Comeback from Diabetes Drug to Weight Loss Miracle

Digital Speaks

Yesterday, Eli Lilly's market capitalization reached the $1 trillion mark for the first time during trading—this pharmaceutical giant became the latest member of the trillion-dollar club, joining the ranks of the “Magnificent Seven” in technology, Saudi Aramco, and Berkshire Hathaway. The market reaction was straightforward: LLY's stock price has risen by 38% in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 645% over five years.

Why is it suddenly so intense? Three reasons

First: The Absolute Dominator of the GLP-1 Track

Lilly's tirzepatide has just surpassed Merck's Keytruda to become the world's top-selling drug. This GLP-1 superstar serves two purposes — Mounjaro for diabetes treatment and Zepbound for weight loss. The entire GLP-1 market is expected to surge from $52 billion in 2024 to $187 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%. The key point is: Lilly secured 58% market share in Q3. In other words, half of the GLP-1 revenue went into Lilly's pocket.

Second: Policy dividends are here

In early November, Eli Lilly and its competitor Novo Nordisk reached an agreement with the Trump administration— in exchange for three years of tariff exemptions, the two companies agreed to significantly reduce prices. The price of Zepbound under Medicare/Medicaid was slashed from $1000/month to $299/month. This appears to be a concession, but in reality, it opens up the super gold mine of Medicare, which serves 68 million seniors and 71 million low-income individuals. The U.S. Medicare system is the largest in the world, and this deal means that Eli Lilly's products will shift from the private market to government payment, completely breaking the ceiling.

Third: Oral medication is coming

The oral version of GLP-1 from Eli Lilly has passed clinical testing, with effects comparable to injections—patients lost an average of 27 pounds (12.4% weight loss) over 72 weeks. They plan to submit for FDA approval by the end of the year, with a market launch in early 2026. This signal is significant: shifting from injections to oral medications lowers the usage threshold for patients, and the market size is expected to double.

How Crazy is the Market?

Since 2019, the number of non-diabetic patients in the U.S. using GLP-1 has surged by 700%. Moreover, the medical community is exploring new uses - Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, arthritis, and addictive disorders are all on the experimental list.

Questions Behind the Digital

Currently, LLY's P/E ratio has reached as high as 52 times, which looks expensive from certain perspectives. However, considering the exponential growth of the GLP-1 market, the breakthrough progress in Medicare coverage, and the imminent launch of oral medications, this valuation may still underestimate the company's long-term potential.

If you have spare money that does not need to be used to pay off debts and you are not short on emergency funds, investing 1000 dollars in Lili seems worth considering—just a reminder, it's best to do your homework before investing in any individual stocks.