Why Lithium Reserves Matter More Than Production Right Now

If you’ve been following the EV and crypto mining boom, you’ve probably noticed lithium is everywhere in the conversation. But here’s the thing most people miss: where the lithium is matters just as much as how much is being mined.

The global lithium reserves sit at 30 million metric tons as of 2024, but they’re heavily concentrated in just a few countries. And spoiler alert—the distribution is reshaping geopolitics in ways we’re only starting to understand.

The Lithium Triangle Dominates (For Now)

Chile sits on the world’s largest pile with 9.3 million MT—almost a third of global reserves. The Salar de Atacama region alone accounts for roughly 33% of the world’s reserve base. But here’s where it gets interesting: Chile’s been cracking down on its lithium industry. In 2023, President Gabriel Boric announced partial nationalization plans, and now the state-owned company Codelco is gunning for controlling stakes in major operations. Translation: geopolitical leverage is shifting.

Australia comes in second at 7 million MT, but with a twist. Unlike Chile’s brine deposits, Australia’s lithium comes from hard-rock spodumene—a different extraction game entirely. Despite having fewer reserves, Australia was the #1 lithium producer in 2024. Why? Operational efficiency and the legendary Greenbushes mine, which has been cranking since 1985.

Argentina holds 4 million MT and is increasingly aggressive. Rio Tinto just announced a $2.5 billion investment to scale production from 3,000 to 60,000 MT by 2028. Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia together make up the “Lithium Triangle”—which controls over half of Earth’s lithium reserves.

China’s Playing a Different Game

China officially reports 3 million MT in reserves, but that’s where things get spicy. In early 2025, Chinese media claimed the country discovered a 2,800 km lithium belt with proven reserves exceeding 6.5 million tons—potentially pushing their reserve share from 6% to 16.5% of global resources.

Even with modest reserves by comparison, China dominates the entire value chain: it processes majority of global lithium, manufactures most lithium-ion batteries, and still imports heavily from Australia. The US has accused China of “predatory pricing” to kill off competition. Smart play if true.

The Real Story: Supply Concentration Risk

Here’s what actually matters: production and reserves are diverging. Australia produces the most but has fewer reserves than Chile. Argentina’s ramping up fast. And China’s suddenly claiming way more resources than previously thought.

For context, lithium demand is expected to spike over 30% year-on-year in 2025 for both EVs and energy storage. That’s a lot of pressure on a finite resource controlled by three countries on two continents.

Other notable players: US (1.8M MT), Canada (1.2M MT), Brazil (390K MT), Zimbabwe (480K MT). But honestly, they’re supporting cast.

The bottom line? Lithium reserves are the new oil politics. Whoever controls extraction and processing controls the EV and battery revolution. And right now, the deck is heavily stacked toward the Lithium Triangle and China.