The recent pullback has made many people start to doubt life. However, there is an important signal that many may have overlooked – on December 1st, the Fed officially concluded its quantitative tightening (QT) that lasted for more than three years.

Let's first talk about what QT really is. In simple terms, it is the Fed withdrawing and destroying the dollars that were previously printed, actively creating scarcity to stabilize the value of the dollar. Over the past three years, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to around $7 trillion, effectively evaporating $2 trillion in liquidity.

This operation can be called the most severe contraction period in the "dollar tide." The dollar has become scarce, and naturally, its value has risen, which has also suppressed inflation. What is the cost? Economic activity is sluggish, the unemployment rate is climbing, and the entire market has entered a low-speed operation mode. For the crypto market, it's even more direct—there's no liquidity left, who can still rise?

Now that QT has ended, it indicates that the policy direction is about to change. Let's take a look at the current economic situation in the United States: the risk of recession is increasing, and the unemployment rate is already not low. To reactivate the economy, easing monetary policy is almost the only option. Recent actions also hint at this, as policymakers are preparing for the next steps.

At this stage, it really feels like the darkest time before dawn. But the Fed actually has no room for choice – if it continues to tighten, once it truly slips into the abyss of recession, it will be too late to implement any stimulus policies. Looking at the lessons learned from certain regions, one can understand how passive it is to miss the opportunity.

My judgment is that, at the shortest, this month, and at the longest, the first quarter of next year, the market direction will become clear. Liquidity will inevitably become abundant again, with the only side effect possibly being the risk of dollar depreciation. However, considering that the AI-driven industrial revolution is underway, the economy is likely to enter a new growth cycle.

So now, those who choose to exit at this node will likely regret it. Just like when BTC was at fifty or sixty thousand dollars, many thought they could wait for a lower price. What happened? Some prices may really never return.