#财九州

Last night, 210,000 people were liquidated.

Today, a friend of mine opened a position at 86,000 with 300,000.

He is not crazy.

He did the same when BTC dropped to 15,500 in November 2022. At that time, the fear index was only 10, and everyone online was shouting "It's going to zero."

He invested 100,000 and cashed out 200,000 six months later.

And those who called him "stupid" at the time are now only willing to buy when it reaches 100,000.

He told me: "I don't bet on price fluctuations, I bet on human nature."

The method he used is known by 99% of people, but no one has ever used it correctly.

Today I made it clear.

Most people know about the Fear and Greed Index.

But very few people actually use it to guide trading.

Why?

Because most people treat it as a "number to just look at" rather than a "trading signal."

Fear and Greed Index from 0 to 100:

• 0〜25: Extreme Fear
• 25〜45: Fear
• 45〜55: Neutral
• 55〜75: Greed
• 75〜100: Extreme Greed
What is it now? 27.

What is this concept?
In November 2022, when BTC dropped to 15,500, the index was 21.
In August 2024, when BTC falls below 50,000, the index is 26.
Both times were at the bottom.

What happened to those who entered at 21 and 26 later?

• Index 21 entry in 2022 → Rising to 108,000 in 2024, 6 times
• 24-year index 26 entry → Increase to 108,000 in 2024, 2 times

But every time, the whole network was shouting:
"It will fall further."
"It will drop to 10,000."
"The bear market is not over yet."
If you believe it, then you've missed the opportunity.

So, a fear index of 27 is not a warning, it's an opportunity.

But this does not mean that a low fear index should lead to going all-in.

I will give you a complete set of "Extreme Fear Trading Method."

This is the method my friend used to enter BTC at 15,500 in 2022 and cash out 200,000 after six months. It is also the method I am currently using.

Step 1: Confirm Signal Resonance

It's not enough to buy just because the fear index is low; three signals need to appear simultaneously:
✔ Fear Index < 30 (Extreme Fear)
✔ BTC has pulled back more than 30% from its peak (deep pullback)
✔ Stablecoin inflow or institutions are buying (support from the capital side)

What now?

• Fear Index 27 ✔
• BTC dropped from 108,000 to 86,000, a pullback of 20% ✔ (close to 30%)
• Institutional funds continue to flow in, with ARK and other institutions increasing their holdings at the bottom ✔

All three signals have appeared.

It is not the peak right now; it is an opportunity to build positions in batches.

Step 2: Build your position in batches, don't bet on the lowest point. Never go all in at once.

My friend was using the "3-3-3 batching method":

• First batch: 30% position, tentative opening.
• Second batch: Buy more 30% if it drops another 10%
• Third batch: further drop by 10% to add positions by 40%

His actual execution is:
• 16,200 build the first batch
• Buy more at 15,400
• Buy the dip at 14,800
Average cost 15,400.

Did not buy at the lowest point, but it doesn't matter.

BTC rose to 30,000, he still made a double profit.
What are you doing now?
Assuming you are preparing a total position of 300,000:

• 87,000 open positions 90,000 (30%)
• Drop to 80,000, increase position by 90,000 (30%)
• Drop to 75,000 to add 120,000 (40%)

The average cost is approximately 80,500.

Even if it falls another 10%, you still have bullets.

Step 3: Set a stop-loss, do not stubbornly hold on. Even when entering the market with extreme fear, a stop-loss must be set.

Rule: If the last batch opening price drops by another 10%, that is the stop-loss line.

For example:
• The last batch of positions was opened at 75,000
• The stop-loss line is set at 67,500
• Clear all positions if it breaks down

Why?
Extreme fear does not mean "it won't fall again."
In 2022, many people thought 19,000 was the bottom, but it fell to 15,500 and then to 14,800.

Those who do not have stop-losses will be destroyed by holding on.
Those who have stop-loss orders can clear their positions and rebuild at a lower point.

A stop-loss is not to avoid losses, but to preserve the opportunity for the next entry.

Someone asked me: What if this is not the bottom?

My answer is simple:

First, I don't bet on the lowest point, I bet on probability.
Secondly, building a position in batches is to ensure that you are "not afraid of further declines."

Fear Index 27 + Pullback 20% + Institutional Increase, these three signals have historically indicated a quality accumulation zone.
It has risen, I have experienced the first batch of the increase.
It has dropped, I still have two batches I can add to my position.
Regardless of the rise or fall, I have a coping strategy.

This is the meaning of batching. Most people do not lack technical understanding; they cannot overcome their fear.

When the fear index is 27, what you see is:
• 210,000 people liquidated
• BTC breaks below support
• Big V is shouting "it will drop further"

Are you afraid? Yes.

But the real meaning of a fear index of 27 is:

Most people have sold.
Chips are concentrating towards the strong hands.
The room for increase is quietly opening up.

This is why the long-term gains from "entering the market in extreme fear" are better than any technical indicator.

My three suggestions:

1. Look at the fear index, not the K-line. The K-line makes you panic, while the index keeps you calm.
2. Build positions in batches, do not bet on a single point. No one can buy at the lowest point, but you can buy within the bottom range.
3. Set a stop-loss, don’t hold on stubbornly, and preserve the opportunity for the next entry.

This is my 8th trading methodology.

From bottom fishing, stop-loss, position management, and exit strategies, to the current "panic emotion trading method", a complete survival system is just like this.

If you find it useful, feel free to share.

Let more people know: entering the market in times of panic is not gambling, it's a strategy.

Let's chat in the comments: Fear index 27, have you already built your position, or are you still observing? Share your thoughts below 👇