Bitcoin Gold Divergence Widens As Bloomberg Model Signals Reversion Risk

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Bitcoin Gold Divergence Widens As Bloomberg Model Signals Reversion Risk Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/bitcoin-gold-divergence-widens-as-bloomberg-model-signals-reversion-risk/ Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence has issued a new warning for risk assets, pointing to a widening divergence between Bitcoin and gold that his valuation model suggests may not be sustainable.

According to McGlone, Bloomberg’s framework places Bitcoin’s “fair value” near 13x the price of gold, compared with the current 20x ratio, implying a potential downward adjustment that could bring Bitcoin closer to $50,000.

Model Shows Bitcoin Trading Far Above Its Long-Term Gold Ratio

The chart highlights the historical relationship between Bitcoin and gold using Bloomberg’s BE Model, which accounts for volatility conditions and asset-specific drivers. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, plotted as the central metric, shows repeated reversion toward long-term equilibrium whenever the spread widens excessively.

The current reading near 20.3x stands significantly above the model’s fair-value zone near 13x, a level that has historically acted as a gravitational anchor during extended periods of market stress. Multiple circled points on the chart illustrate past episodes in 2018, 2020, and 2022 where wide divergences eventually corrected sharply.

Low Equity Volatility Adds Pressure To The Risk-Asset Complex

The model also incorporates the S&P 500’s 120-day volatility, which appears near cycle lows on the chart. McGlone suggests that low volatility in equities often coincides with reduced investor appetite for high-beta assets, a pattern that could weigh further on Bitcoin if macro conditions tighten.

The overlay of Bitcoin-specific drivers (shown in the shaded indices) reinforces the view that speculative excess may have peaked relative to its historical relationship with gold.

Implications For Bitcoin’s Near-Term Path

The chart does not forecast a precise price target, but the implied fair-value ratio suggests that Bitcoin would need to decline substantially to re-align with long-term norms. Based on McGlone’s interpretation, a move toward 13x gold equates to an approximate retracement toward $50,000, assuming gold prices remain stable.

The analysis stops short of calling for an immediate correction, but it identifies a clear gap between Bitcoin’s current valuation relative to gold and the historical range the model treats as justified.

A Repricing Phase May Be Forming

McGlone’s warning echoes a broader debate across macro and digital-asset circles: whether Bitcoin’s post-ETF surge has disconnected from its fundamental drivers. The chart highlights how previous divergences have resolved through ratio compression, often during periods of tightening liquidity or rising uncertainty.

For now, the model’s message is straightforward: the Bitcoin-to-gold relationship sits far above its long-term fair-value band, and reversion risk is building. If markets shift into a more defensive posture, this divergence could become a focal point for traders assessing Bitcoin’s resilience at current valuations.