#美联储降息预期 There seems to be some disagreement about the Fed's rate cut expectations in December. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are no longer expecting a December rate cut; instead, they are focusing on next year. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, still sees a possibility of a rate cut in December. However, judging from the interest rate swap market, traders are not optimistic about a December rate cut either.

For us, this kind of divergence actually presents an opportunity. We can closely follow the latest forecasts from major institutions and compare their views and reasoning. At the same time, we should pay attention to changes in economic data, especially employment and inflation figures. It might be worth doing a small experiment: design several interactive strategies based on different expectations and see which one is more effective. Remember to share your experiences—who knows, you might discover some new arbitrage tricks!