#美联储货币政策预期 Thinking back to the 2008 financial crisis, the actions of the Federal Reserve are truly unforgettable. At that time, they decisively implemented large-scale interest rate cuts and quantitative easing policies to inject liquidity into the market. Now, watching JPMorgan retract its December rate cut expectations, I can't help but reflect. History is always strikingly similar, yet subtly different.

The situation now is much more complicated than it was back then. On one hand, inflationary pressures remain; on the other, economic growth faces challenges. Fed chairman candidate Hassett warned that pausing rate cuts in December would be ill-timed, while several Fed officials have sent dovish signals. These conflicting voices remind me of the chaos before and after the burst of the internet bubble in 2000.

But times have changed; now we have more experience and tools. The rise in AI-related stocks is said to be based on real earnings, which is indeed different from the internet bubble era. Still, we need to stay vigilant. History tells us that excessive optimism often signals impending danger.

In the long run, the Fed aims to bring inflation down to 2% by 2027. This timeframe reminds us that economic management is a lengthy and complex process. We should look at current volatility with a longer-term perspective while paying close attention to every detail. After all, it is these subtle turning points that ultimately shape the contours of the entire economic cycle.