Bitcoin’s recent move has been pretty aggressive—bouncing straight from a low of $83,800 in early December to above $94,000, forming a textbook V-shaped reversal. On the daily chart, the MACD just made a bullish crossover, and the price is back above the 100-hour moving average, so technically things are indeed recovering.

But don’t get too excited just yet. Market sentiment is still pretty divided: the Fear & Greed Index is only at 28, squarely in the “fear” zone. There are several forces at play behind this rebound—renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut, some traditional financial institutions starting to soften their stance (Bank of America even suggested clients allocate 1%-4% to crypto), plus on-chain data shows whales have started accumulating again after the recent crash.

The big question now: can this rally continue? The key is the resistance zone between $93,500 and $94,200. If it breaks through with volume, there might be more upside ahead; but if it fizzles out after a quick push, we’re likely in for another pullback.

A few trading reminders:
• Don’t go all-in. Test the waters with just 1%-3% of your total funds—at these levels, the risk/reward isn’t especially attractive.
• Watch the macro picture. Any moves in US economic data or Fed policy could instantly change the game.
• Stay alert. Technicals are recovering, but market sentiment hasn’t fully turned yet—this is when nasty surprises happen most often.

Bottom line, we’re at a critical crossroads—it could break out to a new bull run, or we could see another deep correction. Don’t let the short-term rebound cloud your judgment; managing your position size is more important than anything else right now.