Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week? This is a done deal with a 94% probability—markets have already memorized the script, now we’re just waiting for the lead to take the stage and recite the lines.

To put it simply, there are three things:

1. This move is transparent as glass: What does a 94% probability mean? It’s like when your mom calls you for dinner—you’re 100% sure she’s in the kitchen, the only suspense is whether the food is salty today. The market’s already in position, just waiting for the official stamp.

2. TradFi has been partying for days: US stocks have rallied for three days straight like they’re on steroids, bond yields are plunging faster than a base jumper, and the dollar index is as soft as yesterday’s bread—Wall Street can’t wait to pop the champagne and celebrate the return of “easy money.”

3. Is crypto still pretending to sleep? That’s the classic play: Bitcoin will probably have a sneaky dip to scare people, then quietly creep up after TradFi finishes its party. Don’t ask why—the answer is always “the whales love to watch retail FOMO into the top.”

Let’s be brutally honest—

A Fed rate cut sounds like a handout, but you need to know if this is a shot of adrenaline for the market, or just morphine for a terminally ill economy. The first dose hits the hardest, but what happens when the effect wears off?

Some real talk:

· The moment expectations are realized is the most dangerous: The more certain the news, the more hyped up retail gets, and the sharper the blades get. History has proven time and again that “bullish news marks the top” is more than just a meme.

· Don’t forget the reason for the rate cut: If the economy was really strong, would the Fed be cutting rates out of boredom? If it’s because the data is collapsing and they’re forced to flood the market with liquidity, then all risk assets are in for a rough ride.

· Impulsiveness is the devil’s twin: Going all in just because you heard about a rate cut basically means you’re donating to the exchange. The sharks are waiting for these pure-hearted rookies.

Are you the optimist who hears it’s going to rain but still doesn’t bring an umbrella, or the old fox who only goes out after the rain stops?

May your positions—be rock solid when you need to be tough, and faster than a rabbit when it’s time to bail.

Final disclaimer: This is just a personal rant, not investment advice. Rate cuts can’t cure greed; if you can’t control your hands, you’re better off uninstalling the app and going to sleep.